August 8, 2024 - 1:00pm
Robert F. Kennedy Jr made a good point about Tim Walz. In a post on X shortly after Kamala Harris selected the Minnesota Governor as her running mate, Kennedy noted that Walz “called Trump supporters ‘fascist’ and ‘weird,’ and they in turn are calling him worse than that.” “The need for an independent President who stands outside the divide and can unify the country is more compelling than ever,” he added. Kennedy is absolutely correct about the opening for such a candidate. The question is why many voters no longer think it’s him.
In early 2024, polls had Kennedy’s support hovering at around 10%. One HarrisX poll of registered voters in late February put him at 17%. With Joe Biden out of the race, Kennedy’s support is now around 5.5% in the FiveThirtyEight average. This time last year, his favourability average was nearly +25%, but now it’s nearly -8%, with his unfavourable average surging from 23% last summer to 41% today.
Meanwhile, headlines like “What Ever Happened to RFK Jr?” and “Dead bear another strange twist in RFK Jr’s faltering campaign” are dogging the candidate as his opponents focus elsewhere. The cub saga raises an interesting question: how much of the blame does RFK Jr bear for his current decline?
Joe Biden’s initial refusal to step down was rocket fuel for the Kennedy campaign’s message about bipartisan corruption. But since Harris became the new Democratic nominee, the venom from these attacks has been lost. Clearly a good chunk of RFK Jr.’s support came from Democrats who just wanted to vote for a sentient member of their own party, which Kennedy only left last October to continue his presidential run.
In late July, New York Times pollster Nate Cohn looked at the numbers and suggested Harris didn’t share Biden’s key “vulnerability” when it came to the independent candidate. “If she’s sufficiently appealing to young, disaffected voters who ordinarily lean Democratic, Mr. Kennedy might not siphon away as much of her support,” wrote Cohn.
After 7 October, of course, Kennedy’s unwavering support for Israel likely lowered his ceiling of potential support among those voters. Trump also started chasing some of the same disaffected Democrats and independents in Silicon Valley circles.
Then the former president nearly took a bullet to the head. Rumours soon spread that Kennedy would endorse Trump. As Axios noted this week, “The campaign has cancelled a number of public events — and missteps fuelled speculation that he was considering ditching his bid.”
Again, though, this returns us to the central question: was the two-party system too powerful for RFK Jr to break through? Surely the endorsement rumours and other attacks can be chalked up to Kennedy posing a threat to both major parties — and the media — at various points in his campaign. On the other hand, he’s lived a colourful life; maybe the brain worms and dead bears are just too much for voters to look past.
The race is not over and RFK Jr. remains a powerful voice with a timely message. As Hillary Clinton learned in 2016, third party candidates getting even 5% of the vote in swing states can make or break a campaign. Kennedy is not an insignificant factor heading into the final stretch of the election campaign. He just may not have much influence over how much that number climbs or falls.
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SubscribeI think its just a bit soon. Wheels are coming off current system but there is still some champagne left in the boomer glass, they can still remortage their houses and watch the stock market fly up again regardless of who get in for another couple of years. But i think 2028 there will be an appetite for an independent as things detereriote furthee)
Although in fairness since Trump was shot at, I have had to reconsider my opinion of him as a kind of fake populist ( a sort of lightning rod for the anger of the masses who govererned as a mainstream republicsn and lets not forget the vaccine shitshow he presided over ) .
Ah ok. Some questions to you as an “Independent.”
What is the current system and who is in charge of it?
What are the details of the “vaccine shitshow” that Trump apparently presided over?
I think Bobby Kennedy’s candidacy has taken the trajectory of all third-party campaigns for the presidency. There have been some unusual events but they still fit the pattern: interest and donations wane over the long-term and the campaign fizzles.
Vice-presidential candidate Nicole Shanahan put in millions of dollars or Bobby Kennedy’s campaign would have effectively ended long ago. As it is it’s effectively ended now. He has no money and is deeply in debt. He’s unlikely to be on the ballot in all states. Nobody is jumping on his bandwagon, they’re jumping off.
Bobby Kennedy will affect this election, as it will be close and he has enough support to get more than the margin of victory in some states. But he’s not going to win anything or influence policy. He might as well not have run.
Kennedy has brain that works, Trump has a brain that works but we sometimes wish it didn’t, Biden has a brain that seldom if ever works, and Harris may have a brain but we can’t tell because so far there is no evidence of it working. Which means of course that Harris will win.
“The cub saga raises an interesting question: how much of the blame does RFK Jr bear for his current decline?”
Ha ha. Very droll.
I wish Kennedy would throw his support behind Trump and Trump would make him head of NIAH.
Kennedy never had 17% support. What support he does have is from the weirdo anti-vaxx fringe and other conspiracy oddballs.
No wonder you guys love him!
If the US was Europe, RFK Jr would be heading a political party. His low numbers are partly due to people feeling its a wasted vote as the election gets closer – I know because I feel that way myself and I hear friends say the same. RFK Jr. is NOT out of money as one commenter said. I know people who work in the Super PAC and it has good money. RFK ‘s message resonates with a lot of voters. Governments mishandled covid, lied, gaslighted, mandated vaccines that didn’t work and had unknown long terms effects. The dreaded “anti-vaxxer” label just doesn’t really work anymore. Call me an anti-vaxxer but I have NOT followed the experts advice and had eight covid shots.