August 30, 2024 - 7:00am
Has the number of rapes in England and Wales soared in recent years? That’s the conclusion one might draw from a set of figures that frequently goes viral. At the beginning of August, a post citing these figures received over 27,000 likes on X. “Rape offences in the UK have soared over 400%,” it claimed. Another post based on the figures, this one from anti-immigration campaigner Steve Laws, managed nearly 4,000 likes. In each case, the explanation was that the massive rise was due to immigration.
The figures in question comprise the number of rapes recorded by police each year between 2002 and 2022. They were originally published by the Office for National Statistics but are also available on Statista — which appears to be where the social media posters found them. Indeed, when searching Google for “rapes England” Statista is the first link that pops up.
In fact, the figures do show a rise of more than 400% from 12,295 offences in 2002 to 69,905 in 2022. However, this is entirely down to changes in police recording practices and increased reporting by victims. As the ONS states: “sexual offences recorded by the police do not provide a reliable measure of trends.” Its notice is given in bold next to a big exclamation mark: had the social media posters sourced their figures from the ONS, they might have seen it. (Statista does acknowledge that the trend is “possibly” due to changes in recording and reporting, but you have to click “Read more” to see it.)
The number of offences is basically flat until it starts rising in 2014. There’s then a dip during the pandemic years, after which it starts rising again. So what happened in 2014? This was the year His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services published a major report on the under-recording of crime, in the wake of national scandals such as the Rotherham sexual abuse cases and Operation Yewtree. The report noted that “the police are failing to record a large proportion of the crimes reported to them” and that “the problem is greatest for victims of violence against the person and sexual offences.”
As a consequence, there was a sustained effort to increase recording of sexual offences. In 2016, the Home Office counting rules for rape were changed so that offences would be recorded on a “per offender basis”, rather than a “per victim basis”. This means that in cases of gang rape, a separate offence is logged for each offender who rapes the victim.
Fast forward to 2024 and the Office for Statistics Regulation concluded — with some caveats — that “police forces have made significant improvements to crime recording”. These improvements are largely responsible for the decline in charge rates for rape and certain other crimes. As the number of offences on the books has risen, the proportion that result in a charge has correspondingly fallen.
So what has happened to the prevalence of rape over the last two decades? The best source of data for measuring long-term trends in crimes like rape is the Crime Survey of England and Wales. This is an annual, nationally representative, face-to-face survey of more than 30,000 households. Respondents are asked about their experience of criminal victimisation in the past year, which allows statisticians to derive estimates of the prevalence of certain crimes.
Data from the CSEW shows there has been no increase in the prevalence of rape since 2005. The proportion of victims has fluctuated between 0.4 and 0.7% of the population, with no apparent trend. The prevalence is computed for the population aged 16–59, which was 34,238,000 in 2022. If we multiply that figure by 0.6% (the prevalence) we get the total number of rapes: 205,000. This is larger than the number of police-recorded rapes, which makes sense given that some victims do not report their rapes to the police.
Viral posts on social media would have us believe there’s been a massive rise in the number of rapes in England and Wales. A little digging reveals that this apparent increase is entirely down to changes in recording and reporting.
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SubscribeA excellent example of why you always need to dig at least one level down into the data below any headline. The other trick subjective truth-twisters most commonly use is to re-define the subject e.g what comprises rape, sexual assault, hate speech, autism etc.
That was good. Much like how valuable it is to make a point of listening to additions of ‘More or Less’ on Radio 4.
Nonetheless on this specific issue whilst there has been no real increase in prevalence we have to recognise it was massively under-reported in previous periods.
Also, though we should not over estimate the chances of an individual woman being raped – women should not be walking around in constant fear – these numbers are still disturbingly high. Presumably a minority of these are stranger rapes – the rest are committed by people known to the victim.
Agree.
There has also been a shift in what women regard as rape and a hardening in what constitutes consent.
“what women regard as rape and a hardening in what constitutes consent.”
Which isn’t necessarily positive, as it’s one directional and emphasises frivolous cases which shouldn’t even be considered, while overlooking genuine cases.
Frankly, I am not sure if reporting and punishment of genuine rapes – involving coercion, physical or otherwise – has even improved at all. All that seems to have happened is a flurry of “got drunk, regret, didn’t text back later” cases and even outright fake allegations.
Only 1 percent of of rape trials end in a conviction. I don’t think men should worry.
Men typically aren’t worried about rapists being convicted – unlike the Guardian feminists who defend Rotherham and Cologne.
What is worrying is a) actual rapists not getting convicted and b) innocent men being convicted for “regret rape”.
In several cases reported it was regret, or a change of mind, expressed 10 or 15 years after the event.
That does not logically follow at all. I’m not convinced that “More or Less” (which is excellent) would draw your conclusion.
If there is no real increase in the actual crime (you call this “prevalence”) and the only significant difference was in the accounting assumptions all this says for certain is that the reporting has changed. It tells us nothing at all about whether rapes were under-reported in 2002 or over-reported in 2022. For all we know, rapes might have been over-reported in 2002 – we know for example that there are false accusations brought to court as well as true accusations that are never reported. That’s unlikely. But logically possible.
And of course, rapes have not increased by 5x over 20 years (from 2002 to 2022). The figures don’t pass even the most basic sanity test.
Whilst there are so many non-factual campaigners and activists pushing their own agendas in this (as in so many areas), you’ll get no closer to the truth.
If you think about this matter rationally and go back to the first principles of English law (much as modern governments are trying to destroy them), it is inevitable that some rapists will escape conviction. There’s no way around that if you want to draw the line such that innocent people are not wrongly convicted. “Beyond reasonable doubt” guarantees there’s always a grey area and you have to draw the line somewhere. That applies to any offence.
It’s very unfortunate. I regard this crime as the second most wicked and offenders should be severely punished.
But it must be a nightmare to prove; undoubtedly there are men who coerce women into intercourse and disgustingly ignore their pleas to stop. How can it be proven, short of cameras in the bedroom?
I don’t believe the statistics. I’m not trying to suggest there are fewer cases than suggested, God help us there could be more, but the evidence must be so hard to find.
It means two things; too many monstrous men escape punishment and also, a false accusation by a malicious woman can never be overcome.
I wonder whether the northern towns grooming gangs activities appear in this data …
More of this fact checking stuff on Unherd please!
Agreed. Puncturing dodgy but widely believed “facts” that bear on social policies would be an invaluable service. Also agree with j Watson regarding the excellence of “More or Less”.
Presumably the person who downvoted this comment doesn’t like facts. Or perhaps doesn’t like facts that disagree with his or her opinion.
A few years ago, when guardian reader feminism was in the ascendancy, posh women ranting about “rape culture” liked to claim that an accusation *is* evidence and pointed to a rise in sexual assaults and the low conviction rate. This was generally met with the sort of stuff the article highlights.
Recently, I’ve noticed that the same sort of people who were refuting this a few years ago (Carl Benjamin springs to mind) now accept the stats as gospel and attribute the rise to immigration.
I’m fairly convinced by both arguments; as usual, the truth is probably in the middle somewhere.
Honestly, you just completely made that up.
Made what up? That right wingers such as CB used to push back against the claimed rise, and no longer do?
Is not the point here that it is not that the incidence of rapes has increased but that they were grossly underreported in the past. No case for triumph here boys.
Exactly. I doubt they’d all be so celebratory about the headline ‘Male sexual violence against women as bad as ever’.
I suppose the higher recorded numbers could reflect some increase in gang rape. I am not convinced that the Crime Survey of England and Wales is a reliable metric either. A lot of people are not inclined to answer doorstep surveys.
https://theheritagesite.substack.com/
If they appear at my doorstep and ask if I’m a rapist, you mean?
Great article. The reality is that we don’t have a clue how many real rapes there are in any year as there probably isn’t a proper way to collect accurate data.
Lies damn lies and statistics with various commentators with an agenda using statistics like a drunk uses a lamppost – more for support than illumination.
Interesting. However there is a an omission in this analysis, which is the proportion of unrecorded crime, which surveys estimate is anywhere between 25% and 60% of all crime, a large spread certainly, but never the less a significant proportion. Furthermore the type of crimes that are least likely to be reported include domestic violence and sexual assault.
“As the number of offences on the books has risen, the proportion that result in a charge has correspondingly fallen.”
This doesn’t really sound like a good thing.
I apologise my finger hit flag by mistake there is nothing wrong with your post
No problem. They’re treating me fairly well for now. The gruel and beatings are improving.
However the risk of rape has increased materially by the import of disproportionate numbers of young males from cultures which find uncovered ladies immoral .and treat them accordingly
Do these statistics include the multiple rapes committed by Pakistani grooming gangs?
Very dubious conclusions which don’t seem to match either UK reality or other countries’ experiences.
https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/reviews/the-influx-of-immigrants-into-europe-and-the-increase-in-sexual-violence/
https://dev.unherd.com/2021/04/swedens-migrant-rape-crisis/
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/E-9-2020-005044_EN.html
Sweden also tried to pretend there hadn’t been an increase in crime and sexual assaults but it became impossible to conceal the truth.
Maybe something similar happening with the ofren reported epidemic of domestic violence. Horrible as domestic violence is, perhaps the rate of domestic violence is the same or even lower than in the past, particularly 40 years ago and more.
It’s good that we tolerate such violence much less than formerly but please try and avoid any hype. Better outcomes need better focus and less headlining.
The only thing I have to say here is that I’m amazed that gang rape was once recorded as a single rape statistic. I can sort of see the logic involved – single victim and single incident – but it’s definitely multiple rapists, so I still think it was absurd to treat it like that.
Excellent article! Makes me wish Unherd had a like button. That being said, I do wonder what the trend is in the rape conviction rate. Obviously, also subject to a myriad of factors other than actual changes in the volume of rapes, still, it’s an interesting data point that I can’t find with a quick google, despite the fact it presumably exists.