November 10, 2024 - 1:00pm
In the lead-up to Donald Trump’s election victory earlier this week, Elon Musk had become one of the Republican’s most vocal supporters. While campaigning for Trump, Musk rooted his support in what he saw as targeted persecution by the Biden administration’s regulatory agencies, including the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), and Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC). The tech billionaire expressed outrage about the Department of Justice lawsuit alleging SpaceX discriminated against hiring asylum seekers, which he claimed in an interview with Joe Rogan was necessary to comply with US export controls: “We’re damned if we do and damned if we don’t.”
On both the Left and Right, many expect federal agencies in a Trump administration to be more favourable to Musk’s companies. The President-elect has even promised to create a “Department of Government Efficiency” led by Musk, with regulatory agencies under Trump expected to reverse decisions detrimental to SpaceX. For example, regulatory scrutiny around the Endangered Species Act, brought by Biden’s Fish and Wildlife Service, are generally less severe under Republican administrations. Meanwhile, the NLRB, which oversees unionisation efforts, may give Tesla an easier ride.
However, the SpaceX CEO has a long way to go if he wants to be free of Left-controlled agencies. Last month, the California Coastal Commission, a state regulator which controls construction along the coast of the Golden State, blocked future SpaceX launches. The commission cited Musk’s tweets as part of its reasoning for denying the launches, making the objection explicitly political. So while Musk may have a friendly president in the White House, he still faces trouble at the state level.
Moreover, public attitudes are likely to turn somewhat against Trump — and by extension Musk — during the coming administration, due to the negative approval ratings that any incumbent president tends to suffer. These shifts in approval usually apply more intensely in states where the losing candidate is popular, such as California, where X and SpaceX were headquartered before Musk moved them to Texas. This shift in public opinion may transfer to Musk, making it more popular for state governments to take action against companies affiliated with him.
The Tesla CEO might also have to worry about lawsuits from foreign countries. After the Musk’s Twitter takeover, the European Union sued X for “disinformation” under the Digital Services Act (DSA), a sweeping package of social media regulation mainly affecting American companies. As part of this lawsuit, the EU also threatened to target assets belonging to other companies with which Musk is affiliated, including SpaceX and Tesla. These actions are part of a longstanding EU-California alliance to regulate technology in direct opposition to federal US legislation. As Luke Hogg writes: “In passing effectively identical laws, Brussels and Sacramento figured out that they could force American companies, and global companies by extension, into their progressive vision of data privacy without having to get the federal government involved at all.”
By becoming directly involved in politics, Musk has opened himself up to a new dimension of attacks from politicians, both domestic and foreign. It has forced him to clearly distinguish between his friends and his enemies. However, it has also given him significant influence in the Republican Party, which could take several actions to counteract Left-wing persecution. If Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives, as looks likely, they would be able to pass federal preemption laws to supersede many state laws and regulatory agencies, such as the Communications Decency Act of 1996 which created broad protections for internet providers. The Interstate Commerce Clause provides the US Government with the authority to override state regulation on businesses involved in “interstate commerce” — which Tesla, SpaceX and X all are.
What’s more, Trump may put diplomatic pressure on cases of European legislation such as the DSA, which act as de-facto tariffs by exclusively affecting American companies and TikTok. With all of his companies thoroughly intertwined with politics, Musk has every reason to continue taking an active role in the inner workings of government.
Brian Chau is a mathematician, software engineer, and independent writer at cactus.substack.com.
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SubscribeVery unlikely, in my humble view.
It seems to me that everyone, the right in their support, the left in their stupidity, are making a peoples’ champion out of Musk.
Musk is obviously a man of conviction. His troubles with govt persecution ramped up significantly when he bought Twitter. He could have avoided all the lawfare if he simply kept his mouth shut and bent the knee to govt. He has put all his billions at risk by making a strong stand for the things he believes.
If Harris was elected, the govt attacks against Twitter would have been fatal IMO. The EU would impose hundreds of millions in fines if he didn’t bend to their censorship rules. They still might impose the fines, but the only person standing in the way of that is Trump. He can apply enough pressure to possibly convince the EU to back off. Maybe not.
IDK how the author writes this essay without mentioning Tesla and EV mandates. The defacto mandates implemented by the EPA will be target number one for Trump. This will certainly hurt Musk’s auto company. On the other hand, Musk is no idiot and he likely sees the writing on the wall – EV production has grossly outstripped demand, despite the mandates, and there are way too many competitors out there, especially from China.
Teslas sales are still rising AFAIK, also Trump can’t change CARB its rules are made at the state level
That’s fair. Sales are up, profits are declining, but still profitable. It’s true Trump can’t change state-imposed mandates, but he can change the EPA’s emission reduction schedule, which are basically EV mandates.
Great post.
EV pathway is, till now, driven by government rules.
I am OK with EV winning battle of technologies.
But not if it is based on government subsidies.
Apple and Android did not win mobile phone competition because of subsidies but because smart phones were way better than Nokia phones.
I don’t know numbers of Tesla business but in West London when I live my rich neighbours and their friends are switching from a Tesla to EV Porsche and Audi.
When battery technology improves a lot in 10 years, what is USP of Tesla?
Still, West doesn’t need EVs and they will never (ok, 30 years) catch up in developed world because required infrastructure is not there.
So West is committing industrial suicide by abandoning technology where it has huge lead to enable China industrial dominance.
I don’t say it lightly but Western leaders are either traitors or morons.
And for what?
China, India and the rest don’t care about global warming, so West sacrifices are pointless.
I am 65 and childless but many friends with families and some with PHDs in science and medicine somehow believe all the woke nonsense.
West had gone insane.
He’s very close to exponential adoption of autonomous driving cars in the States and Optimus 3.0 (full capability robot) drops in December. He is the Brunel of our age and the GOAT among tech bros because he has mastered multiple domains in hardware, the most difficult game in town. He will be extremely well remunerated for US re-militarisation through space, and he believes that first people flights to Mars are 2028. What Trump does is clear the way, by de-regulating key sectors and other forms of facilitation. As an example, Musk stated this week that the permits for a Mars flight test take longer than cracking the technology to enable it. His greatest fear for the world is population decline. On current trends he says that rhe compounding impact means that within 3 generations popllulations in many countries will be 5% of their current size. Without people there is no humanity, and he is very keen on us as a species . My fear is not for his businesses, but for his health and wellbeing.
Yes, but without government subsidies EV are nonsense (at least in uk where I live).
Yes, they are cheaper if you charge at home.
But this does not take account that in uk petrol and diesel price is over 75% tax.
If you exclude that, EVs are more expensive to run.
If you charge from street chargers (my neighbours pay 82p per KWh), EVs are twice as expensive per mile ad ICE cars and EIGHT times are expensive as ICE cars if you exclude fuel duty on petrol.
Fuel duty brings £27 billion in uk, so government has to replace it somehow if everyone went electric.
Woke idiocy is strong.
— “The tech billionaire expressed outrage about the Department of Justice lawsuit alleging SpaceX discriminated against hiring asylum seekers”—
I had to read this three times (no exaggeration!) to make sure that I read it correctly.
And, indeed, it is outrageous that the government should mandate a private company to hire people from a certain group (aka filling quotas) without any consideration of merit.
It is no less outrageous to introduce such mandates in the public sector, btw.
Its illegal for SpaceX to hire foreigners, their engine tech is classified, China and Russia ect would love to get their hands on Merlin or Raptor blueprints
Also SpaceX are trying to increase their launch rate out of Vandenberg in California, the local politicians are blocking them because Musk is transphobic. these people are stupid
Thank you for this additional – and important – information.
Indeed, bizarre… And, while we are on the subject, it was also completely bizarre that the DoJ wanted to sue Musk for his lottery-like offer aiming to boost voter participation, although one could see with the naked eye that there was nothing unlawful in this.
Strange people making strange decisions…
A good case could be made that they remember (with joy!) how everyone jumped to obey the Covid restrictions. In their minds they no longer need to make sense; it’s the Divine Right of the Overclass.
We still have a lot of work to do.
Very true!
Why bizarre?
It is perfectly logical with woke religion.
Yes, you want increased participation in elections but only if extra voters vote woke.
Otherwise, it is fascism.
Well, no.
They are consistent in woke idiocy.
It is irrelevant if Musk business is good for USA and California.
What matters are not even beliefs but at least keeping quiet about madness of woke.
Not pointing out how moronic woke are.
This can not be forgiven.
Whatever the cost.
He didn’t mention Texas – which houses both Big Oil – and a lot of wind and solar, and of course large battery storage facilities, some of which I assume are powered by Musk’s technology… And Musk as you know has been into “cleaning up the planet” for some time – and also there’s Musk’s Neuralink, the “chip implant” technology, which I would have thought would have got Trump and his supporters a bit concerned.
I don’t think anyone is against Neuralink, it might be a great help for people with brain or spinal injuries
How about Democrats? They seem to be brainless and spineless.
You are so cruel.
Sent them to Dignitas.
Starting with Biden, Kamala, David Lamy, Dianne Abbott and Starmer.
I am sure many people will support that.
He was always going to be a target because he doesn’t like slavery. And can’t keep quiet about it.
It’s actually what it means to fight for your values.
I foresee two tensions between the two parties involved:
Trump is not big on decarbonisation (drill, baby, drill) which will conflict with Tesla’s need for government support (it’s Musk’s largest balance sheet asset); and Musk has been sucking up to Xi for a long time (no mention there of freedom of speech). Unless Trump u-turns on Sino-US relations, Musk may find he’s riding two horses.
Great post.
I support Musk in his Twitter endeavour but his car business is shaky (I explained on another post) and missile launches are not going to make mega billion business.
West doesn’t need EVs.
Economic suicide.
Does anyone else the photo is cringe-worthy?
No, kid. Also, you’re missing a word in your comment.
The general impression is that Trump and Musk will fall out, which seems likely to me, but this interesting piece is a reason they might not.