The recent attack has shifted the discourse. There was a special edition of the main Israeli news show dedicated to the event, which has happened only rarely since 7 October. What’s more, it is seen as a departure from the usual round of tit-for-tat strikes in the north, which were seen as tolerable — despite them resulting in 45 deaths, leaving a large swathe of Israeli territory uninhabitable, and displacing tens of thousands of people for almost 10 months.

It is also significant that it was Druze who were killed, and in an occupied territory rather than Israel proper. Despite being Arabs, the Druze within the 1948 borders of Israel are patriotic and fight in the Israeli military. This is different for the Druze in the Golan Heights, most of whom do not accept the occupation of the area that has been in place since 1967 and still consider themselves to be Syrian.

But that doesn’t mean they support Hezbollah, and the incident has created a desire for revenge among the Druze. In response to the deaths, local community leader Sheikh Muafak Tarif stated that “a proper country cannot allow the continued harming of its citizens and residents. This [has been] the ongoing reality for nine months in northern communities. This evening crossed all possible lines.”

Israeli government ministers who attended the funerals were heckled by some mourners. One said to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich: “We don’t want you in the Golan Heights. Get out of here! You’re a murderer!”

But others complained about the lack of action against Hezbollah: “Our children should play football in peace,” one man said, adding that “I have been in the reserves for ten months” without any end in sight. When Economy Minister Nir Barkat approached him, he was told: “Don’t shake my hand, don’t silence me. Woe to you if you don’t [hit] them back.” Meanwhile, Druze living across the border in Syria have also condemned the attack. An all-out war is now much more likely than it was last week, although the time frame remains unpredictable.

Hezbollah didn’t intend to cause civilian casualties, and certainly doesn’t want a full-blown conflict with Israel. Since Saturday, the group has been trying to de-escalate: as soon as it was reported that children had died, Hezbollah has alternated between denying responsibility and insisting that it was aiming for a military installation on nearby Mount Hermon. Its leaders would like to back down, but if Israel’s reaction goes beyond the retaliatory strikes launched so far, they might not be able to.

Earlier today, the Iranian Foreign Ministry warned Israel that any “military adventures” in Lebanon could lead to “unforeseen consequences”. If Israel carries out further strikes in retaliation for the Majdal Shams deaths — as current public opinion demands — then it may be hard for Hezbollah not to retaliate in turn, especially given the warning of its Iranian sponsors.

Since 7 October, it has always been likely that an accident or unforeseen event, rather than a premeditated action, would be the trigger of any war between Israel and Hezbollah, as both sides wish to avoid such an inevitably destructive conflict. Unfortunately, Saturday’s strike may well have been that incident.

---

David Swift is a historian and author. His next book, Scouse Republic, will be published in 2025.

davidswift87

---