March 30, 2024 - 1:00pm
In this year of big elections, one of the biggest is for the European Parliament starting on 6 June.
Up to this point, the Euro-establishment has not had to worry about the uncertainties of EU-wide democracy. A cosy arrangement between the three main Euro-parties — the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberal Renew Europe (RE) grouping, means that whatever the precise result, the establishment always gets in. Never mind the voters, the same old club gets to divvy up the plum jobs — above all the Presidency of the European Commission.
This time though there’s an element of jeopardy for the bigwigs. There’s a chance that the liberals will lose their third place and fall to fourth, fifth or even sixth position. That would undermine the legitimacy of the three-group stitch-up not to mention the future career options of the EU’s most senior liberal politician, Emmanuel Macron.
The biggest threat to the old order comes from Europe’s Right-wing populists. According to the latest projection of seats for Euractiv, the Right is expected to make substantial gains — with an additional 36 seats for the two biggest populist factions. The liberals, on the other hand, are projected to lose 15 seats and Greens 20 seats.
The projection does show RE just about hanging on to third place (in terms of MEPs), but it’s touch-and-go. Indeed, there are several reasons why the populists are stronger than the crude seat totals might suggest.
Firstly, as mentioned, Euro-populism is divided between two main groups: the national conservative ECR and the hard Right ID. If they were counted together then they wouldn’t just overhaul the liberals, but the socialists too, finishing behind only the European People’s Party.
Secondly, the ECR and ID groups each have a larger vote share (as currently polled) than RE. It’s only a quirk of the system that gives the liberals slightly more seats.
Thirdly, there are even more Right-wing populists hidden among the “non-inscrits“. This is the remainder bin of the European Parliament, containing all the MEPs who are unaffiliated to any of the formal Euro-groupings. These include the Hungarian MEPs belonging to Viktor Orbán Fidesz party. If they joined up with either the ID or ECR groups then the liberals would most likely lose their third place.
Fourthly, the June elections may return enough EPP and populist MEPs to create a Right-of-centre majority in the European Parliament. At least on some issues, the populists would be able to offer the EPP an alternative to its habitual coalition with the centre and centre-left. This will disrupt and perhaps destabilise the parliamentary dynamic.
Finally, the populist centre of gravity is moving westwards. While the hard Right has lost ground in Poland, it is surging in the most powerful countries with the richest economies (e.g. Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands). Money talks in the EU and that influence will have an increasingly populist tone.
The coming election will be notable for one other thing. It will be the first time that the EU votes for a new parliament without the UK’s participation. For British Remainers that should be a comfort. The populist Right is about to make a major advance in Europe, but at least Britain will have no part in it. Hurrah for Brexit.
Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.
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SubscribeBut surely Brexit WAS a populist advance…in Britain?
There will shortly be another when the present Conservative party is destroyed, either by its natural constituency voting Reform or simply not voting. Labour and Conservative are presently totally interchangeable.
The Populist movement in Europe will be strangled by not being allowed “airtime” by the MSM because they are “far Right”, which they aren’t.
However Europe is so frightened of democracy because of the 1930s that it has already embraced Corporatism/Fa**ism…which simply won’t be rolled back, until the system collapses economically.
Emmanuel Todd is right; the “West” is “game over”…unless there is radical change.
If you read the correspondence between Jean Monnet and Eduard Spaak you can see clearly that the point of the project from day one was to render ineffectual the ‘anglo Saxon’ democracy imposed on Europe under the Marshall Plan.
Regrettably I’m unsure that the Marshall Plan was quite as benevolent as the PR suggests.
The USA needed markets for its products, and it needed to keep Communism at bay in case it “infected” the USA. Further it was WW2, a war, which put the US economy back on its feet, not Roosevelt’s New Deal.
What better way to keep the US economy going than another war, this time Cold, against Communism?
Marshall Plan dollars used to buy US capital goods, Western Europe saved for US capitalism and the British Empire financially ruined and a supplicant of the USA…a winner all round for the USA.
Of course, the Soviet Union didn’t get Marshall Aid because it realised the consequences…subjugation to US capitalism.
And when the EU was getting far too friendly with Russia (actually a perfect match…cheap Russian energy and commodities allied to EU technical expertise, mainly German..) along comes the Ukraine war…another good win for US capitalism…
Amazing that, after all this time and all this history, there are still apologists for Joseph Stalin. Maybe the Webbs, George Bernard Shaw et al can be forgiven (though I don’t think so), but you have to be seriously perverse, I think, to still be touting this narrative in 2024.
There is no “apology” for Stalin whatsoever in my comment. Russia would have been been better off if Kerensky had prevailed.
As for the “narrative”, possibly you can advise how it doesn’t fit the historical facts. Even recently Lindsay Graham said that the Ukraine war was the cheapest and best war ever for the USA and had cost no US lives. Not a good “look” but undoubtedly true.
Of course, the Cold War was only cold for the West. Elsewhere it was hot and very nasty, no doubt one of the reasons the “Global South” isn’t going along with the “sanctions” against Russia promoted by the West; it simply doesn’t ” have a dog in that fight”.
With regard to Anglo Saxon democracy I really wish we had some. The result of the biggest democratic exercise in UK history, Brexit, has effectively been ignored, although the attempt to actually overturn the result didn’t quite succeed. The policies of both main UK parties are almost identical, and in the USA, Trump as President achieved little because the government machinery didn’t allow him to succeed. Very likely the same will happen again.
The populists, both right and left, will continue to gain ground as long as the ruling political parties and coalitions continue to do unpopular things.
Yep, for all the seemingly endless, complicated explanations it really is that simple.
Look who’s back!
Great news for the people of Europe if true.
Although, what’s actually happening, is that anti far-left parties are starting to make themselves heard more and more. The far-left ( open borders, hate speech inquisition, pro-crime/anti-victim, punitive taxes, etc ) have brought Europe to its knees in the post war period. Sweden is the gold standard of how the far-left can quickly destroy a country,
Of course, normal pushback against the far-left regimes of Europe will be painted as ‘far-right’ by the those clinging to their crumbling tyranny.
And what is it that makes people like Orban so democratic? Their erosion of the separation of powers? Their crackdowns on the press?
We in the UK have a populist Woke loud, dogmatic and highly aggressive minority which increasingly intimidates society and holds sway over every aspect of life and over both Tory and Labour. And if the SNP in Scotland isn’t populist, then what the hell is?! It’s a totally dishonest myth, very successfully peddled by Woke Red Guards that populism is the sole preserve of the right.
Well yes, wokeists are a minority, but they reside in the ruling class and its clients. They aren’t really populists as such.
Woke Jokeys are anti-populist.
Not unsurprising but important to note the Author does not refer to the clear fact virtually all Right or Far Right European parties have abandoned or scaled back their plans to follow UK’s Brexit example/shambles. We should wonder why? Uncomfortable perhaps to admit it?
And thus we may sit to one side, pleased but weakened and less relevant, whilst others pick up the mantle. And European Populists will have little ‘truck’ with British exceptionalism too. Be careful what one wishes for.
Being less relevant to the EU’s corporatism is entirely beneficial for the UK.
The European Populists have rather more on their plate to be concerned about what you describe as British “exceptionalism”; they won’t win anyway.
I’m not convinced any of these ‘populists have ever had any intention of leaving the EU – or even offering the choice to their populations. There’s no way out now, especially for those unlucky enough to be in the Eurozone periphery.
The right-wing ones have the advantage of being able to make flaps about culture-war stuff without seriously threatening anything else. The EU is as happy with the free-movement of blame as they are with capital. These ‘right-wing’ populist likewise.
Meloni et al have discovered that, once you no longer have the lifeboat of a national currency you’re doomed to stay on the Titanic until the end.
J, I’ve worked with EU officials in the past. You vastly overestimate their competence and underestimate their arrogant stupidity. Try spending a week with one and you’ll be grateful for Brexit by the end of it.
I dont think the euro parliament has any real power. European power is vested in national prime ministers, the euro commision ( appointed by national governments) and the central banks ( unelected)
National governments nominate members of the Commission. They don’t appoint them.
What’s the difference ?
Either way, they still aren’t elected and can’t be removed by the voters.
I only make this point because remainers often insist that the untruth that governments appoint commissioners prove that the EU is not anti-democratic. The whole mission of the EU is anti-democratic and always has been.
Perhaps the ‘ship of state’ or the ‘ship of empire’ has become so big that, like a supertanker, a change of course rightwards takes far longer than expected? Especially if it is undoing a long period of previous course change leftwards.
The coming election will be notable for one other thing. It will be the first time that the EU votes for a new parliament without the UK’s participation. For British Remainers that should be a comfort. The populist Right is about to make a major advance in Europe, but at least Britain will have no part in it. Hurrah for Brexit.
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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd.
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Hi, Peter! Your site positioned itself as Un Herd site.
Looks like you overestimate your ability to be outside the herd
How so?
Did you read that “The populist Right is about to make a major advance in Europe, but at least Britain will have no part in it”? Where is the difference between him and average MSM journalist?
The vast majority of the staff here are left-wing journalists of varying degrees of bias, and the only concession they make to us is minimal censorship of our comments. From my point of view, this is clearly not enough to proudly state “We are outside the herd”
Yes, Unherd is very much of the herd
It was written with a touch of sarcasm I believe, at least that’s how I read it. Maybe the subtlety doesn’t travel well outside of Britains borders
The thing about the extreme hard right populist nationalist fascist parties is that they are not really out of the top drawer. Old chap.
Sorry if I missed a couple of pejoratives.
It can only be a matter of time before swastikas appear on the streets of London.
The populist right is rising. That means that a lot of ignorant comments about Nazis are almost inevitable.
Looks like he was right and you were wrong: https://www.yahoo.com/news/london-police-officer-sparks-outrage-011840432.html
The UK didn’t participate the last time.
Seems like the second half of this piece is missing: What policies might change as a result of this possible realignment?
Specifically, the EU will stop denigrating Hungary.
The populists meat an unmet need, politicians who listen to voters.
Based on the Book of Revelations the Antichrist is about to rise to power for 7 years prior to Christ’s return. The relevant date is the 1948 reestablishment of Israel. This generation shall not pass away until all is accomplished. A 12-year-old bar Mitza Jew in 1948 is scheduled to die at age 90 in 2026 which is 7 years prior to the 2000 anniversary of Christ’s assentation into heaven in 2033. In addition, the war of Gog and Magog has begun in the middle east. Everything is on God’s script for the end of the world and 1000 years of direct rule by God.