Populist parties traditionally do very well at European parliamentary elections. Some of the 400 million people registered to vote across the continent use them as a chance to let off steam, knowing that the representatives they return to Brussels and Strasbourg are far less important than their domestic politicians.
This always produces some of the most startlingly ironic results in global democracy, such as France’s once deeply Eurosceptic Rassemblement National (RN) gaining far more seats in the European Parliament than the National Assembly in Paris. It was the same with the British Brexit Party, which took up seats abroad but not in the House of Commons.
Such oddities did not provide a route to significant power, but instead confirmed the status of some parties as loud protest groups, ready to express their cynicism and anger at every opportunity.
Now, however, new polling data suggests that groupings such as the RN and their allies are well on their way to recording their highest ever result in June’s European Parliamentary elections, and the implications are far-reaching. This is because pan-European problems, such as immigration and Net Zero, are dominating the political agenda, and national governments are struggling to cope.
The botched handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the Ukraine war, and the escalating farming crisis are all examples of floundering by incompetent administrations. In France, President Emmanuel Macron can no longer rely on a majority in parliament as, like everywhere else, the cost-of-living situation spirals out of control. Macron will have served two terms by 2027, and is thus constitutionally bound to step down, but many feel his brand of liberalism is long past its sell-by date anyway.
Instead, the RN is tipped to win 33% of the French vote for the European Parliament this summer, while the Reconquête party headed by media polemicist Éric Zemmour is on 6%, according to a Portland Communications poll. Such a result — approaching 40% of the vote — would put the hard-Right well ahead of the centrist Ensemble! group. The latter includes Macron’s Renaissance party and is polling at just 14%.
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