The recent jobs report showing declines in almost all high-wage sectors — notably manufacturing, professional and business services — does not augur well for the durability of the MAGA revolution. Although Trump inherited a weak economy, his policies in the short run seem to have accelerated layoffs without yet sparked hiring.

The numbers are frankly depressing. Manufacturing shed 12,000 jobs, extending a decline that began in February 2023. Wholesale trade also suffered, reflecting exposure to tariff turmoil. High-wage sectors were hit too, with lost jobs likely due less to trade than to the rise of AI. As in the closing years of the Biden administration, job growth is concentrated in low-end services such as retail, healthcare, and food.

Some of the problems lie in timing. Trump’s tariff threats have succeeded in winning huge commitments from major tech and industrial companies. But these developments take years to build, and even longer to become operational. In many ways Trump may suffer the indignity of seeing his positive legacy reaped not by his acolytes, but by the likes of Gavin Newsom.

This seems ironic given that Trump does not seem like a man with a coherent strategy or long-range vision. MAGA is, and will remain, a reactionary movement bent on rolling back progressive policies that reached their extremes during the twilight of the Biden years. Under the climate and social justice regime imposed by the Democrats, the economy could never really expand outside of government services, a reality more associated with Europe than America.

Trump has worked to roll back these trends, to his credit, but this will not be painless. There are vast constituencies — tech companies, financial markets, libertarian ideologues — who would like to see his economic policies fail, so that we can remain a country on an inexorable economic and technological retreat. A country that cannot produce screws can’t overcome one that can.

Sometimes entrenched problems need to be purged, and in this Trump has been effective. His approach to critical issues such as energy production, EV mandates, DEI, and expenditures of dodgy progressive projects, here and abroad, have had some effects. By the time he is finished, Trump may have unraveled much of the regulatory regime that has stifled production and deepened America’s perilous dependence on China.

Of course, these measures would be far more impactful if accompanied by a clear long-term vision. Symbolic gestures — such as renaming sports teams, the Department of Defense, or the Gulf of Mexico — are likely to be reversed when the opposition returns to power. What matters more is demonstrating how the GOP can drive growth through initiatives like expanded skills training, smarter use of technology, and incentives to manufacture and build domestically.

But like an enema, Trumpism is not a subtle medication. We may end up feeling better at the end, but the pain and discomfort of his efforts may doom him and the GOP — at least in the short term. Consumers paying 20–30% more for goods not produced domestically may not see the benefits of tariff-driven investments for a year, two, or even three.

Trump’s policies are already disrupting entrenched regulations and forcing industries to rethink domestic production. The results may be uneven and slow, but the long-term trajectory looks more promising than under Biden. Either way, one thing is certain: the decisions made today will shape the US economy for generations to come.

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Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute, the University of Texas at Austin.

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