A war that ignited in the Donbas may end there. Over a decade after Moscow fuelled separatism in Donetsk and Luhansk, Vladimir Putin seems intent on seizing all of those territories. The Russian leader’s recent peace proposal to US President Donald Trump hinges upon Kyiv withdrawing from the two oblasts in return for Russia freezing the frontline in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Kremlin sources indicate that Putin is not backing down from the demand.

On the face of it, the offer might tempt Kyiv. With Luhansk almost entirely under Russian control, accepting it could end the loss of Ukrainian lives and territory in exchange for just 2,548 square miles of Donetsk. But the question lingers: does Putin truly prize this patch of land enough to halt the war? Its Russian-speaking population may give it symbolic weight, but that hardly seems decisive.

More likely, it is not. A leader who insists that all of Ukraine “belongs” to Russia is unlikely to settle for a few more miles. And in any case, the outlines of a potential settlement already exist: Zelensky has signalled a willingness to tacitly accept Moscow’s grip on what it already holds, in return for security guarantees that may amount to little more than weapons deliveries and a hollow promise of eventual Nato membership.

However, by demanding the Donbas, Putin has adroitly shifted the conversation beyond what can be easily agreed upon. The proposal was likely an attempt to sow discord between the US and Ukraine by convincing Trump that a deal — and, by extension, a Nobel Prize — were in easy reach. The Kremlin, of course, knew the offer was impossible for Zelensky: accepting it would mean swapping the image of a staunch defender of Ukraine for that of a capitulator.

For his part, Zelensky has steadfastly refused to withdraw — and is correct to do so. An industrial heartland, Donetsk is vital not only for its coal, iron and steel but also its “fortress belt” of heavily defended towns and cities, with Slovyansk and Kramatorsk forming logistics hubs. The Institute for the Study of War assesses that the unoccupied areas constitute a “critical defensive position” that “Russian forces currently have no means of rapidly enveloping or penetrating”, with Moscow’s efforts to seize the “belt” likely to take several years.

Ceding would entail Ukraine rapidly constructing expensive new fortifications along Donetsk’s borders with the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, where the open terrain is unsuited to defence. The ISW concludes that Russian forces would then have “a much more advantageous launching point for a future offensive into Kharkiv or Dnipropetrovsk oblasts”.

Zelensky could tell the Ukrainian public that it is better to lose land than men and point out that landmines will render the territory’s resources unusable to the Russians for years. However, it would be impossible to backtrack on his statements that Moscow’s forces would merely use their new lodgings as a staging post to push further into Ukraine.

It could still prove the sole option if Trump forces the compromise on Kyiv by halting intelligence sharing or the supply of weaponry. That said, the Europeans appear to have — for the moment — successfully convinced the American President against the idea by likening it to the US surrendering eastern Florida. Meanwhile, Trump’s most recent statements suggest he may have lost interest in the war entirely.

We have reached the impasse Putin always intended: negotiations stalled while Russia advances on the battlefield. Eleven years after igniting separatism in Donetsk and Luhansk, his ambitions have only grown. The very regions he once fought to prise away no longer suffice to satisfy him.

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Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.

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