July 21, 2024 - 8:55pm
Gleeful Republicans are wildly underestimating their opponents in the wake of Joe Biden’s decision to step down from the presidential ticket. The schadenfreude is understandable, but it will fade: Republicans are about to be left with a very different race.
According to the RealClearPolitics average, Donald Trump is viewed unfavourably by roughly 55% of the country. Kamala Harris, who swiftly received Biden’s endorsement, is viewed unfavourably by 52% of Americans. Only 38% of the population views her favourably, while Trump sits on around 43% approval. But never before have American elites been so desperate to defeat a Republican presidential nominee.
Swapping “Bidenflation” for “Harrisflation” and “Biden Migrant Crime” for “Harris Migrant Crime” is easy enough for the GOP, should the current Vice President consolidate the field in short order and knock any potential challengers out of the race before it even begins. On the other hand, Harris — or any Democratic nominee — will now enjoy the backing of a fiercely anti-Trump media machine. She’ll be boosted by Hollywood and Trump’s remaining enemies in Silicon Valley and Wall Street.
The woman who gained so little traction with voters outside California, in this very particular context, will be much more formidable, even if some of the elite desperation will backfire and even if she’s still a cringe factory. Should Democrats pursue a more open process and land on a Blue Dog candidate such as Andy Beshear, this becomes an even more advantageous scenario for the party.
If Democrats gather behind Harris, she’ll also be running to become the first female president, and the first black female president. The woman card didn’t work for Hillary Clinton — although Republicans sometimes manage to forget she won the popular vote — and it will likely work even less in this season of post-2020 DEI fatigue. But it will definitely come with advantages in fundraising and media coverage.
Democrats also secured another potent talking point: when push came to shove, they did the right thing, even under the hardest possible circumstances. They passed the baton to the next generation. Republicans, they will also say, couldn’t ditch Trump after January 6 or any number of controversies. The “both parties are pushing elderly chaos” argument will now likely be on Republicans and Republicans alone. Democrats will have the opportunity to say they listened to the people and responded.
In a two-way race against Biden, who couldn’t finish a sentence, Trump was only up by three points at the time of the President’s resignation, according to RCP. Harris is not an ideal candidate for Democrats. She’s an anti-populist California elite who’s become the subject of mockery in popular culture. Leftist writer Matt Stoller outlined her policy history in a thoughtful X thread recently, describing part of her early record as “standard operating Obamacrat stuff”. It’s worth remembering that’s the material Trump successfully used to win the election in 2016.
Democrats are now in an awful situation: there’s absolutely no way around it. But they’re also staring down a major opportunity for generational transformation. It could be with an open primary and a great red- or purple-state candidate. It could be with a complete makeover of Harris, from policies to messaging. The first step in the transformation process, though, is complete.
Now Democrats have to execute. It won’t be easy for a party so influenced by Beltway operatives with terrible instincts, but Trump’s polarising appeal will create a powerful split screen, especially if they handle it like they finally handled Biden’s glaring inability to win. This is not a moment for celebration in the Republican Party.
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SubscribeI’m wouldn’t be so sure that Ms Harris wants to run for president. And she’s also not capable psychologically to handle the task. The shoes are too big.
Why did she accept a Vice Presidential nomination then?
Question 1 for Harris.
Do you believe President Biden is mentally fit to remain President until January 2025?
Question 2 for Harris.
Did you notice any decline in the cognitive ability of President Biden from 2023 onwards?
Sorry, this just isn’t going to help Trump that much. We are talking about a polarized political contest, not a court of law, and in many ordinary voters minds, who is lesser of two evils. A very supportive minority of Americans feel very positive about Trump, even hero worship him, but the majority, simply do not.
If the Democrats run a half plausible democrat opponent – who might even be able to say that we went too far in X or y direction (because he or she will not be Biden) they will have an excellent chance of beating Trump. Recall that even unpopular Hilary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016.
Answers:
Q1: With the loyal support of his many colleagues and friends, yes
Q2: No, it’s a very recent occurrence and in private he is still remarkably cogent.
And in responce, here’s my question:
3)) By his speeches and conduct do you think Mr Trump is a fit and proper person to lead this nation?
4) Do you seriously believe Mr Trump to be sane?
Absolutely. Never underestimate your opponent.
Totally agree. She’s ambitious and trainable and, assuming there’s a second presidential debate, will be a better speaker than Biden (not a high bar). If she stays on message I wouldn’t underestimate her.
And I totally agree the legacy media will pull out all the stops (certainly including lying) to promote her and defame Trump.
Do you not think the fact she’s been lying through her teeth about Biden’s mental state for three years at least is not going to cripple her candidacy from day one?
This election hinges on undecideds and wobbly Republicans who might be persuaded to vote Democrat. The Dems, aided by the media, will make the election all about Trump’s weaknesses (many real, some made up). The issue of Kamala, and the rest of the Dems, covering for Biden will be history by next week.
It ought to, but since so many people could be accused of that, the Democrats and their friendly media can spin it as ‘loyalty’ and they’ll have a receptive audience.
Sadly no, because that’s just pretty much politics; my esteemed colleague or I fully support the prime minister etc. The Democrats new perfectly well that conceding on the metal incapacity of Joe Biden could only help Donald Trump.
It proves she’s loyal and decent. And suggests she’s had more input into government than is widely assumed.
No, of course not. Where is it written that she was obligated to discuss Biden’s health issues? She’s not a doctor. This is a private matter between Biden and his doctors, period. Not to mention, Trump, at 78 years old, definitely has a few loose marbles in his current mental state. Trump sounds like an entitled, spoiled child. What’s up with the name-calling? This is unprofessional and displays that Trump is nervous and fearful. So he resorts to six-year-old name-calling. I can think of more than a few names. Well, maybe one. He’s a wannabe mobster that should be feared. So, I’ll crown him “Trump, you fake Al Capone.” Shut the hell up and drop out of the race as well.
https://assets.grammarly.com/icons/v1/gds-icon-ggo-action-shorten.svgShorten it
https://assets.grammarly.com/icons/v1/gds-icon-ggo-action-shorten.svgShorten it
“Complete makeover of Harris”? Was that a joke? The snideness from UNHERD regarding Trump was absent when writing about Democrats, one notices
I don’t know whether you’ve actually noticed this – but UnHerd hosts a number of writers of widely different perspectives and opinions, Left, Right and other! I’d say this is greatly to their credit. But of course we must all be guaranteed to only read articles we agree 100% with!
Excellent point! I’d like UnHerd was more if I wrote all the articles! I’d then go through and make glowing comments about each of them!
“She’s an anti-populist California elite”
I hope Trump uses this line to attack her. He’ll win by a mile.
Trump won’t ever remember that! He’ll just make fun of her laugh!
There is only one thing to say about Kamala Harris running for President: she’s the “Didn’t Earn It” (DEI) candidate. Recall she only garnered a high point of 2% in the 2020 primaries and was the first to drop out. She is an absolute disaster on every front. And she also can’t even complete a single thought or complete a single sentence.
Correction: She did not even take part in the primaries, she was so unpopular and so bad a campaigning, she had to drop out as result before they even began. Her campaign barely lasted two months.
So Ii guess an Convicted Felon should be voted back into the White House to not face jail. Trump however did earn a place in prison.
I still think putting her up is the second best option for Republicans. I’d be much more afraid of Gretchen Whitmer, or Michelle Obama. Don’t forget that Harris was Biden’s “Border Czar.” I would love to hear her defend her record on the border. She is also almost as inarticulate as Biden. It’s embarrassing to listen to her to speak.
Virtually NO one who knows Michelle Obama well says anything but the woman would never agree to run. She hated the political life, hated living in the White House even more. Will. Not. Ever. Happen.
Right. Thanks for the emphatic single word sentences and treating us like children! Nobody said that M Obama would stand – the article is not about her. You know, adults can talk about hypothetical situations!
Question. Do you have a college degree? Also am so tired of the Border Crisis syndrome. Question where is the border wall Trump promised the voters, and as to far he will get Mexico to pay for it.
This is a product of the George W Bush era. NAFTA, the Cross-Border Disaster. The NAFTA-CAFTA Legacy: Failed Trade Policy That …In NAFTA’s first seven years,.
Mexican migration to the United States more than doubled, surging 108 percent. The George W. Bush administration.
Folks, you will never a get firm grip on this situation starts in Mexico. George W Bush introduced legislation regarding immigration reform that shot down by Republicans. My point is isn’t something that you can blame on either Trump or Harris. It’s gotten out of control for many years. I remember when asked regarding American jobs at stake. His reply what these are the jobs that Americans don’t want. It’s time to stop the finger pointing, It’s time to bring these people to the light, and have them to pay taxes, Their employer to offer medical insurance. But all this nonsense about murdering Americans. Hate speech isn’t the answer. You need Immigration reform.
Lotta nerve in asking another commenter about his education, at the top of that non-grammatical mess you submitted.
Online, the Kamala jokes are just starting – that’s not a good sign.
More importantly, who will be her VP? Democrats will vote for whoever they are told. But to win the swing voters, they need a credible candidate somewhere on the ticket.
Of course nobody’s ever made a joke about Trump.
The Democrats can now turn Biden’s withdrawal into an opportunity to reverse their policies, as suggested in the article.
By so doing they would pull the rug from under Trump, but don’t hold your breath!
The likelihood is more of the same from the democrats with Kamala Harris or some other useless candidate to take them forward leaving an open door for Trump.
Unfortunately Kamala has a good shot at winning in November. Never underestimate the victimhood, patriarchy, toxic masculinity, colonialism, evil white men, etc. narrative that Democrats and feminists have been developing for decades here in the US. They will come out in droves to elect a women, especially non-white.
True! And I write this with great regret. I already see that mentality manifest in the forums of newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal. A commenter wrote this morning that white men are bad for the world! I wanted to shake him like a rag doll for this idiotic comment, but these people are disconnected from common sense, and their ideological bubble cannot be penetrated by logic. I wanted to ask him what his life would be without white men? No cars, no trains, no planes, not even bicycles, no electronics, no appliances (he could do his laundry in a nearby river or pond). World travels? Try a sailing vessel! I despise these brainwashed snowflakes with a passion, and if I had my way, they would all get deported to a remote island without any modern advances that were created by white men. Hypocrites, the lot of them!
It’s beginning to look a lot like … Chicago 1968.
I President who chose not to run anointing his Vice President, who will be saddled with all his unpopular policies, while young people march in the streets.
And they will be marching for Hamas!
An open convention with multiple candidates might avert disaster but no Democrats will have the courage to run, and the party will talk themselves into the fantasy that she can win despite the fact that she is as unpopular as Biden, just like it talked itself into thinking the 81-year-old president could win, until it became blindingly obvious that they were dreaming after the debate.
Democrats and the left have been firmly ensconced in fantasyland for a long time now, and the rest of us keep paying for their delusions.
A second Trump term will be as chaotic and disastrous as the first. Anyone who doesn’t see that after his convention speech is just as delusional as the Democrats.
Here is an interesting discussion between Yuval Levin and Michael Shermer where Levin explains that the two parties continue doing the same thing over and over again because America is so evenly divided, they just might get a different result.
Division and Polarization in American Politics: Balancing Majority Rule and Minority Rights (youtube.com)
We did great during Trump 1, COVID included.
You must surely be joking? I feel like some kind of saying “never in the field of politics has so much boastful bluster achieved so little”! Did Trump actually ever “build that wall” – about the only specific thing he promised to do. And since he didn’t “drain the swamp” – either the “swamp” helped produce the supposedly good record or the Trump administration was ineffective. The alliance during covid of Trump and Antony Fauci isn’t perhaps an issue Trump’s supporters will be foregrounding!
The Trump administration did have some achievements in foreign policy, but I wonder whether that could be continued given that he is so erratic and inconsistent and has such a short attention span. America’s opponents will know him much better and be less fearful of him. Threatening to destroy opponents at the same time as keeping the US out of foreign wars is rather a contradiction.
Yes, the political polarization in America is so strong that each party is running an anti-candidate of sorts, that is, a candidate against the other party. And, predictably, a lot of people are repelled by the whole thing and turn away from it. It’s approaching the intensity of a religious battle. Which, I gather, is what drove the 17th century civil war in Britain, which led the American Constitution-writers to separate the state from any specific religious order. (Though not, as some in the US now claim, to exclude belief in a higher power)
As an onlooker with no skin in the game my opinion remains the same if Harris replaces Biden – what on earth has America done to deserve such a piss poor choice for President. Frankly the American people deserve so much better.
Sorry if that offends.
81 million people voted for Biden.
Elections have consequences.
Yes, Harris is an empty pantsuit. The choice here in America is between two incompetent candidates if Harris gets the nomination. I am hoping that at least one other Democrat will step into the ring to contest her nomination. We’re in a dark time.
We can’t elect a convicted felon as POTUS period.
I note you don’t tell us who your preference for President would be.
The questions for Richard Nixon are now coming for Kamala about the medical problems of Joe Biden :-
What did she know?
When did she know it?
Trump just needs to put her woke utterances on a loop for 24 hours. All the memes on X were hilarious yesterday night. She is totally out of her depth and every training and speech writers won‘t hide her total lack of talent. She was chosen as VP because of her gender and race. That‘s it….
And this is praise for Kamala Harris?
Biden was trailing Trump because of immigration and cost of living. If they’d been OK Biden would have won. Immigration and cost of living are the reasons Trump was leading. Harris still owns those issues.
Harris is a bad joke. The Democratic Party’s election stealing machine, supported by the media, the government, and almost all the relevant institutions, is not.
I cannot get over all the pundits who try to analyze this election as if it will be fair. It won’t be. If Trump wins it will be because of a real 60-40 landslide that the powers aligned against him will make a squeaker 51-49 but couldn’t quite reverse.
Assuming he is still alive at that point.
Reminds me of history buffs who like to speculate how Germany could have won WW2 by this or that military move, while ignoring that under any of their alternate histories, in August 1945 the US would have had deliverable atomic bombs.
Don’t ignore the elephant in the room.
“Assuming he is still alive at that point”. Well, he is an elderly man, and quite overweight.
Trump is a convicted felon by his peers and a liar. No one didn’t steal any voting machines. He in his ( mental private universe) can’t accept the fact he lost. His motive is avoiding jail.He can’t reverse the present back to the past. He can’t ring the bell of White Supremacy into acceptance.
What Trump needs to do from the outset is call her a worthy opponent. He should highlight the fact she’s “Black” (she isn’t) and a woman, which is a first for this office. But he should also say his worthy opponent shouldn’t rely on those things to bolster her chances, because that’s showing weakness and a strong black woman shouldn’t need to do that. He should also call on her as a strong black woman to stand on her record and tell us all that she’s accomplished.
Uh huh. My guess is that he won’t do any of that. Rather, he will just make up rude nicknames for her, and will mock her laugh.
Saw him in Michigan, he was on fire! He is likely to eat Harris for breakfast at the presidential debates but he needs to be careful not to look like a hyena devouring a fluffy bunny!
Shriver seems shrewder.
That the ‘fiercely anti-Trump media machine’, Hollywood, Silicon Valley and Wall Street support this soulless, incoherent diversity hire will just increase voter’s disdain for her. If she debates Trump, she will be absolutely eviscerated. It will be richly satisfying to watch this sad pantomime play out.
But Trump is too old. His lack of capacity will be on show in the next debate (if there is one).
Current betting odds: Trump 11/18, Harris 13/8. I suspect Mr Trump will win, but for value 13/8 is better.