January 2, 2025 - 7:00am
Recent years have brought a truly unprecedented level of immigration into the UK, with net migration for the year ending June 2023 reaching a record high of 906,000. The number of immigrants entering the country during that time was 1,320,000, more than the entire population of Birmingham. Considering the scale of change in such a short period, is there a case for an emergency national census?
The England & Wales Census, held every decade, is next scheduled to be carried out in 2031. However, holding a mid-decade census is not without precedent: the provisions of the Census Act 1920 allow for a nationwide survey to be held as frequently as every five years.
Back in December 1963, Conservative minister Lord Newton presented the case for a mid-decade census between 1961 and 1971, as it was “a time of rapid change and development” and because “the traditional 10 years is too long to wait for the hard figures which only a census gives.” He justified this on the grounds that it would enable more effective implementation of Government policy, as well as being an invaluable resource for civil society — from science to industry.
The 1966 census proposal had cross-party support. Focusing on pressures on housing, schools, and hospitals due to internal North-to-South migration, Labour’s Edith Summerskill also argued that a truly national census was needed to understand “pockets” of segregation and improve integration outcomes among recently-arrived Commonwealth migrants. The first mid-decade census — with a 10% sample — was held across the UK in April 1966, shortly after Harold Wilson’s landslide general election victory.
Six decades on, a similar case can be made for an “emergency” 2026 census in an era of mass immigration and significant population change. It could cover the social, cultural, and demographic impact of the so-called “Boriswave” which followed the post-Brexit liberalisation of the UK’s immigration system under the Johnson-led Conservative government. The March 2021 Census took place before the UK registered record-high levels of inward migration — disproportionately impacting English cities such as Leicester, where 2022 riots were attributed to failures in integrating new communities.
It is also worth noting that the 2021 Census was held under lockdown during the Covid-19 pandemic — an exceptional period that may have interfered with the quality of data on work and travel patterns. This is precisely why the Centre for Cities has called for a 2026 “corrections” Census. The 2021 Census was also poorly designed in parts — with one by-product being the overestimation of the proportion of trans people living in England and Wales, which was eventually dropped by the ONS as an official statistic.
While some in the Labour government may be uncomfortable about the idea of holding a census which exposes the true scale of population change in modern Britain, it would provide the party with a wealth of data that could be used to criticise the Tory record on post-Brexit immigration, what Prime Minister Keir Starmer has labelled an “open borders experiment”. It could also encourage the inclusion of “integration” items that all genuine progressives should support — such as the degree to which Britons trust others in society, their level of civic activity, and sense of belonging in their own area. This proposed census could form part of a meaningful national integration strategy — something the Conservatives, for all their lip service, failed to do when in government.
With the technology available, there is no reason why a 2026 census cannot be held at short notice. More light must be shed on the challenges we face in a period of fast-paced ethnic and religious diversification.
Dr Rakib Ehsan is a researcher specialising in British ethnic minority socio-political attitudes, with a particular focus on the effects of social integration and intergroup relations.
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SubscribeAn interval census appears to be a good idea. It will be a win win for both the Labour Party and Reform.
No census taken now will be at all accurate – the scale of illegal immigration is likely to be much greater than the government is willing to admit. A better way to get a grasp of the totals is to analyse the sales of all the major supermarkets. Better still would be to demand identification from everyone using the NHS – but that would require a political class more interested in serving the national interest than their masters in Davos.
Sewage volume also a useful metric here.
Greater volume could be a reflection of increased obesity as much as immigration. One for statisticians to argue over.
Konstantin Kisin highlights the problem in a YouTube conversation with Chris Williams entitled: “Everyone who can Exit the UK is leaving”. The problem is not simply the unprecedented volume of immigration both legal and illegal but that we are losing those who are wealth creators and have ambition and replacing them predominantly with less productive immigrants with different cultural values and welfare recipients. Of course, this is potentially open to refutation but a simple census is unlikely to reveal the truth or otherwise of this belief.
This is not a simply a race issue as I am aware of well educated Nigerian immigrants who have left the UK to improve their lot.
It is a race issue ultimately. I’d rather be at 1950s levels of wealth in a country of 95% ethnic Brits, than be a minority in my own country but with vast wealth.
Vast wealth? What vast wealth? What modest wealth the UK has is owned by a small slice of its population.
I think UHR was speaking hypothetically, not describing the current situation.
A few years ago, around the time of the Brexit Referendum I believe, the ONS said the UK population was around 60m, while the national supermarkets estimated more like 80m. Remember when the ONS was asked how many EU27 citizens were living here they were out by approximately 50%, proved by the number who applied to stay in EU-less Britain. Whatever system they try you can be sure it will be vastly understated due to the number of under-the-radar immigrants we have here.
What’s the phrase? Horse, bolted, don’t bother closing the stable door…
Bolt, horse, stable door…….
This gets resolved via digital ID and a guestimated amnesty of.about 1.5m people Blair is on manoeuvres again and immigration has always been his stalking horse for data capture and the digital reset. Interested to.see what people will trade off their freedom for.
We don’t need a referendum. We need to introduce draconian measures on illegal migration and solid controls on legal migration, and automatic disqualification of all refugee asylum claims from those who enter without first gaining official approval. All those turned away should be offered a choice of return to origin or delivery to a beach on the coast of Iran, China, Qatar, Russia, or any other one of the nations who accuse us of causing all the world’s troubles while carrying out appalling abuse of their own citizens and fomenting terror and violent discord internationally.
UK MIGRATION PROBLEM : PLAN
Immediately deport all illegal arrivals, including ‘asylum seekers’ who have not adhered to the required procedure.Reinstate the Rwanda Plan with immediate effect (before Germany makes use of the £millions invested by UK) and deport all illegal migrants there if they refuse to return to their land of origin or who conceal their identities.Introduce identity cards, to be issued to legitimate British citizens only. Anyone unable to prove their UK citizenship to be deported immediately or sent to Rwanda.Redirect the foreign aid annual budget to establish a properly resourced Border Force with legal teeth, which is required also to identity and deport, with immediate effect, any/all people residing in the UK without legal permission.Whenever possible, recover the costs of investigating and deporting illegal immigrants when they are deported.Introduce a mandatory minimum term of 10 years imprisonment (with zero remission/parole) for anyone convicted knowingly of employing illegal immigrants.Invest in the strategic training and development of UK citizens so that the requirements for importing legal migrants to undertake UK jobs is minimised. This to include terminating dole/state benefits to any unemployed citizens who refuse to undergo appropriate training without an acceptable reason for so doing.Exit UK from the ECHR (convention and court) with immediate effect.Review and revise UK human rights legislation to minimise its provisions for obfuscating and facilitating illegal immigration directly and indirectly via the courts and associated processes.Emphasise the role of the government in primarily supporting the needs and interests of the UK majority, while ensuring reasonable protection for genuine minority interests.Celebrate British history and heritage and its indigenous and reinvigorate a sense of national pride in the nation; and encourage/facilitate full integration into the British value system by all those who are given the privilege of UK citizenship.Reinforce the Christian basis of British law, life, traditions and customs while ensuring free worship for other religions, provided they respect the host culture.
A fairly comprehensive list!
I support this. The Govt hasnt a clue how many people there are. And it is crucial to providing services.
E.g. the govt says there are 57 m in England (and Wales ?) . While 63 m are registered with GPS.
The govt says there around 67m in the UK . The supermarkets estimated they were feeding closer to 80m in the pandemic.
What is quite clear is that in the last 25 years the population has increased by around 20% – at a time of falling birthrates.
In the 1980s and 90s services were far far better than they are now. And the economy grew much faster. Life was much better.
There is no case economically for immigration.
There is a very good economic case for a lower population.
I understand that high-skilled immigration from say, EU countries and countries like Australia, USA, Canada and NZ is economically beneficial to the UK. It also has none of the deleterious social effects of low-skilled immigration from developing countries. It is the latter that costs us billions every year and is fracturing our nation.
No further “new communities “ required or welcome Let’s remember the ethnic British are the majority “community” that needs recognition. Very annoyed that maintaining the use of this phrase, so called “communities” , alienates the ethnic British, contemptibly relegating our values and contribution when there’s a huge problem of parasitism and subversion.
I don’t understand why migration is always given as a net figure. We don’t keep figures on who is leaving and why. But we do know the Inflow.
The powers that be would not want us to know that for every doctor or engineer leaving the UK we have a replacement (or 2) of people who have no intention of working or learning the language but still expect us to house and support them for ever, all the while changing all our established systems and practices to those more akin to those they left behind. The likes of Starmer may think this is a good deal for the UK but I disagree.
Back in 2008, both sewage volumes and supermarket demand allowed leaders of both industries to argue the real population was closer to 80 million. (Blair dropped visa exit checks in the 90s, so we have no idea about overstays.)
Another metric to investigate is new SIM activations/active mobile devices on the network. We are almost certainly somewhere between 80-100 million people in total.
The point of the article was to argue for a mid-term national Census, with special emphasis on gaining information related to in- and out-migration and changing socio-economic conditions. I agree with the suggestion, because only a properly-designed and properly-executed census can provide the statistical data needed. A reliable census might help avoid widespread exaggerations and misinterpretations about immigration (illustrated in some of comments included here).
However, care must be taken to have a sensible and rigorous basis for questions asked and how they are interpreted. The absurdities about ‘trans-people’ in 2021 is a prime example of how not to do it; so is the appalling (and equally politically motivated) mismanagement of the 2021 by the Scottish Government.
Final point. If we also had a sensible system of national identity cards and associated registration, it would be possible to have continuous good information about population movements. It could also better control access to public services and benefits.
The birthrate of the UK in 2024 was 11.171 births per 1000 people, a far cry from the rate of 2.1 needed to maintain the population. Were it not for current and recent immigrants having babies, the UK’s birthrate might well be the lowest in the world. Without a large number of immigrants each year, the UK will shrivel up into a society of octogenarians on social support with not enough young people to support them or otherwise do the nation’s work.
Better to have the old people starve to death than have the place turn into Nigeria. Or is not being for racial suicide racist now?
You have mixed up lifetime fertility per woman and births per capita.
Sure. Go ahead with a new census. But while the UK is counting how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, it would be good to take a look at the entire global sewing kit. Where is the UK in the global population picture today? How about in the year 2100? Look at this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bryamiM3K8
If you can’t sh00t the migrants, you will be taken over and enslaved and murdered by them. You are just Eloi. They are literally eating the native Brits now. How many thousands of young girls have to be r@ped for you to do anything?
While a census could be helpful a better use of the money would be to fund mass deportations and remigration. After all we already know what the problem is even if not the actual depth of the problem.