In his resignation speech, Gantz apologised to the families of the hostages, claiming that he shared responsibility for the failure to rescue their loved ones, adding that he had reached his decision with a “heavy heart but a clear head”.

He pointedly attacked Netanyahu, claiming that Bibi was “preventing us from moving forward towards a real victory”, and stating that he had told the Prime Minister to set a deadline for an election. He also called on Defence Minister Yoav Gallant — with whom he is close, despite Gallant being a member of the Likud — to do the right thing and follow suit.

If the resignation was long anticipated, what comes next is much harder to predict. Shorn of Gantz’s National Unity party, the government is now composed of the Likud, two ultra-Orthodox parties and three “national religious” or settler parties. Bibi will be even more dependent on the settlers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — but even he knows that they cannot be allowed to have increased influence in the war cabinet, for both military and diplomatic reasons.

Ben Gvir has already demanded that he take Gantz’s place in the war cabinet. But it is now believed that with Gantz’s departure, Netanyahu will disband the war cabinet and return to a more direct form of government, rather than the more consultative approach he has taken since 7 October.

None of this bodes well for the prosecution of the war, whether that be in terms of Palestinian casualties, the rescue of the remaining hostages, or the destruction of Hamas. But it is interesting that Bibi made so little effort to publicly persuade Gantz to remain in the government, refusing to offer even performative concessions.

This suggests that, as I wrote last week, Netanyahu has accepted an election is unavoidable, that he has effectively given up on achieving his war aims, and is now fully focused on managing the political fallout of his failures. An election may be coming sooner than we think.

---

David Swift is a historian and author. His next book, Scouse Republic, will be published in 2025.

davidswift87

---