X Close

Are progressives to blame for the worsening housing crisis?

Pro-density policies are driving newcomers out of the market. Credit: Getty

June 9, 2024 - 5:40pm

In recent years, housing has emerged as arguably the key driver of class divisions in the Western world. For decades, working- and middle-class people could dream reasonably about buying a house, providing security for their families and a financial nest egg for themselves, but that dream is now slowly dying. Until the Nineties, house prices generally rose at about the same rate as income, and homeownership became more widespread, with the median multiple in most areas around three. But since then, prices “have been three times faster than household median income over the last two decades”, according to the OECD.

This has been further confirmed by a new Demographia International Housing Affordability study which found that, despite claims that they reduce prices, higher urban population densities are associated with worse housing affordability in the United States, Australia and Britain. Many of these changes are due to urban containment or compact city strategies that seek to limit development in already urbanised areas and promote urban density — an approach widely popular with progressive activists.

Unfortunately, many of the drivers behind these trends are political: the embrace of pro-density policies has been commonplace in both the Barack Obama and Joe Biden administrations, as well as in progressive bastions such as California. Indeed, there are even attempts by the likes of Biden to transfer inner-city populations to suburbs, who may be less than welcome when they get there. Add to that the problem of high interest rates, the product of Washington’s extreme profligacy, and even more people are being driven out of the market.

Those hurt most by these developments are the new entrants to markets, such as minorities — who now account for virtually all growth in suburban areas — and Millennials. According to US Census Bureau data, the rate of homeownership among young adults at ages 25–34 was 45.4% for Generation X, but dropped to 37% for Millennials — even though nearly three in five see homeownership as an essential part of the American dream. It should be no surprise, then, that Biden’s drop in support among young people largely lies with the diminishing prospect for upward mobility and home ownership.

But this is hardly just an American phenomenon. In the UK, the homeownership rate has plunged below that of 1985. And in Australia, the 2021 homeownership rate among Australians in their mid-20s to mid-30s will be lower than in the 1947 census.

Once, the Democratic Party embraced the idea of expanding home ownership. After all, it was Franklin Roosevelt who suggested that “a nation of homeowners, of people who own a real share in their land, is unconquerable.”

Now that approach has been replaced by policies — including some embraced by the Biden administration — which seem calculated to make housing more expensive. This could spark a greater pushback from the middle and working class. Or it could accelerate the demise of the property-owning middle class, a perfect prerequisite for an expanded welfare state inhabited by the nation’s dependent poor and the largesse of the oligarchy.


Joel Kotkin is the Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and author, most recently, of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class (Encounter)

joelkotkin

Join the discussion


Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber


To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.

Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.

Subscribe
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

33 Comments
Most Voted
Newest Oldest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments