Will Europe see a new Visegrad formation emerging after the victory of Andrej Babiš in Czech elections at the weekend? Babiš is far from good news for Brussels, but he is also no Viktor Orbán. While less Eurosceptic and ideological than the Hungarian Prime Minister, Babiš could nonetheless become part of a Hungary-Slovakia-Czech Republic group geared towards slowing down support for Ukraine and resisting its EU accession.

This alliance will also be a force to reckon with in the realm of European policymaking. Babiš, who together with Orbán founded the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament last year, is a pragmatist who is more likely to push for national interests in Brussels and the reform of EU institutions.

On the campaign trail, Babiš defined his own brand of populism, pledging to run the country like a company. He embraced the trappings of Trumpism, right down to the red caps. But instead of large crowds, Babiš campaigned mostly in small groups, dressed down in trainers and jeans, with T-shirts emblazoned with Czechia, everything for you or Czechia — against the green madness. He is a billionaire who likes to portray himself as the spokesperson of the poor and downtrodden, and results from the weekend suggest that this strategy has worked. His party improved its results from a predicted 30% to 34.5%, taking votes from across the political spectrum.

Unlike Orbán, Babiš is a strong supporter of both the European Union and Nato. These are two prerequisites for President Petr Pavel to give him a mandate to form a government. The other hurdle, however, is the Czech President’s concern about Babiš’s conflict of interest over his large business empire.

Pavel will hold talks with all parties before announcing his decision over the mandate. If it is Babiš who is chosen, he will need support to get a majority in parliament. He said on Saturday that he is planning for a minority government supported by the Right-wing SPD and the anti-Green Deal Motoristé, a new party entering parliament supported by former president Václav Klaus.

The election results put Babiš in a strong position in those negotiations. As well as the overperformance of his ANO party, the SPD only managed 7.8% of the vote against an expected 13%. The Left-wing Stačilo! (“Enough!”) coalition did not even make it over the 5% threshold to get into parliament. Many of those lost votes went to support Babiš.

What can Europe expect should Babiš become prime minister for the second time? There is no broader appetite in Czech society to radically break from the EU and Nato, but a new government may present more resistance to support for Ukraine and in its EU accession process. Entering into the euro is also unlikely as long as the government depends on the votes of the SPD and the Motoristé. Meanwhile, Czech industry is highly dependent on Germany, supplying auto parts and other manufacturing goods. The Green Deal is an existential threat for many of those suppliers, and so Babiš is set to form a coalition with parties which share his scepticism.

This is an edited version of an article first published in the Eurointelligence newsletter.