Donald Trump’s shock-and-awe approach to domestic issues such as immigration and DEI appears to be inducing a Leftward shift among his base. While the President is posting impressive policy victories on both fronts, his lack of a legitimating narrative and disregard for due process is seemingly weakening his soft power, endangering the national conservative project.

For instance, there are now nearly as many Americans wanting to increase immigration as decrease it. Whereas immigration was a winning issue for Trump in 2024, the effects of his showy and sometimes illegal deportation actions have been to stiffen opposition. Almost two voters now disapprove of his handling of immigration for every one who approves. Meanwhile, Gallup reports that the share of Republican voters who want immigration to be decreased has fallen from 88% to 48% over the past year.

Something similar is happening in the culture war. Trust in universities declined from 56% in 2015 to 36% in 2024, tumbling from 55% to 20% among Republicans. This paved the way for Trump’s higher education reform agenda, with its focus on uprooting affirmative action and DEI policies.

But now Gallup reports that, for the first time since 2015, public trust in universities is up, rising from 36% in 2024 to 42% in 2025. Among Republicans, the share expressing confidence in “four-year colleges and universities” has increased from 15% in 2024 to 26% in 2025, a faster increase than among Democrats and independents — albeit from a lower baseline.

To explore these questions further, I ran a new survey on the Prolific platform oversampling Trump voters. It repeated questions I asked in December 2023 about whether they trusted three liberal professions: social science and humanities (SSH) professors, journalists, and teachers. I also asked about their trust in universities more generally. This provides a fuller view of trends over time.

Prior to this year, Republicans mistrusted liberal institutions and professions. In 2021, the share of Trump voters trusting SSH professors was 34%. In late 2023, it was roughly the same. For journalists, the number was 15% in both years.

However, Trump’s often haphazard actions in office have changed the picture. As the graph below shows, Trump voters seem to have reacted by moving Leftwards. Trust in SSH professors has jumped from 35% to 47% over the past year, while trust in journalists and teachers is up 14 points. Faith in universities has also increased by 11 points.

Trump voters’ trust in professions over time

Despite clear victories over entrenched DEI practices in universities, the Trump administration still lacks a principle-led “rational populist” programme of reform. This approach would respect due process while legitimating change on the basis of classical liberal principles and a conservative respect for the traditions of the majority of Americans. Instead of chaotic “deals” and arbitrary arrests, a reforming president could have articulated a clear set of ideas, appealing to the constitution, the law, public opinion and the country’s proud history.

Trump could have drafted legislation, not just executive orders. He might have, after time-limited discussions with universities and public institutions, firmly but respectfully enforced his guiding principles. Respect for academic freedom — even for those who, for example, zealously oppose Israel — would have demonstrated that principles matter, not just Machtpolitik.

While Trump has importantly shown that the DEI complex is not invincible, he has not made the kind of ethical case needed to win over the public and place anti-woke politics on a durable footing.  American public institutions are in urgent need of reform, and it may be that only a character lacking in probity could have violated the politically correct norms which insulated these institutions from democratic and legal accountability.

Much now depends on whether culture or power matters more in the long term. If ideas are primary, then Trump’s hard-power approach to the institutions may come at the expense of the battle for hearts and minds.

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Eric Kaufmann is Professor of Politics at the University of Buckingham and author of Taboo: How Making Race Sacred Led to a Cultural Revolution (Forum Press, 4 July).

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