The latest voting intention figures from Focaldata suggest that Labour’s support among Britain’s Asian-heritage population is sinking. But to where are these voters shifting their allegiances, and why are they doing so?

When Asian voters were asked who they would vote for if they had to choose, only 26% said they would opt for Labour. This is dramatically lower than the usual number for British Asians, a majority of whom have consistently been loyal to the party. To put this in perspective, according to the Focaldata figures, half of black voters would do the same. The primary beneficiaries of Labour’s collapsing support among Asian voters are the Greens, who rise to 25% from 8%. Support for the Conservatives, which stands at 18%, is likely driven by Gujarati Hindu voters in London and Leicester, while 11% would either vote for a minor party such as George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain (WPB) or an independent candidate.

There are several plausible explanations for the drop in Asian-origin support for the Labour Party. Britain’s sizeable Sunni-dominant minorities of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin — which provided Labour with levels of support in the region of 90% during the Jeremy Corbyn years — have grown increasingly disillusioned with the party under Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Much of this is down to Starmer’s stance on events in the Middle East. For instance, he said in October 2023 that Israel had the right to cut off water and power to the Gazan population. Since winning last year’s general election, he has avoided referring to what has unfolded in Gaza as a genocide. Despite the suspension of key licences, the UK appears to still be exporting military equipment to Israel. For voters who object to Labour’s position on Israel and Palestine, the Greens, the WPB and pro-Gaza independent candidates are all attractive electoral alternatives.

The weakening relationship between Labour and Asian voters — specifically Muslim voters in the UK’s Pakistani-origin and Bangladeshi-heritage communities — also stems from domestic factors. In the build-up to last year’s election, Starmer angered members of the British-Bangladeshi population after singling out Bangladesh over illegal migration to the UK — even though it is not a common country of origin associated with small-boat Channel crossings. Just weeks after entering Number 10, seven Labour MPs had the whip suspended after voting against their party and supporting an SNP motion to scrap the two-child benefit cap, which would disproportionately benefit working-class Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities with traditionally larger family sizes. The MPs suspended included Pakistani-heritage Zarah Sultana and Bangladeshi-heritage Apsana Begum.

Last week, Starmer suspended a further four MPs over the recent welfare cuts rebellion, with another three — including Bedford MP Mohammad Yasin — stripped of their trade envoy roles.

In an increasingly fluid electoral marketplace, with many options on offer for voters who are unapologetically pro-Palestine and Left-leaning on the economy and welfare, Labour is at serious risk of permanently losing much of its traditional support from Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. The political landscape will be even more complicated for Labour if Corbyn launches a new party which builds strategic alliances with the Greens, the WPB, and pro-Gaza independents as part of a broader Left-wing coalition.

With next year’s local elections in England taking place in cities such as Birmingham and Bradford, towns such as Blackburn and Oldham, and London boroughs such as Newham, all signs point towards Labour suffering an electoral bloodbath in parts of the country with a high proportion of South Asian Muslim voters. Labour was once their natural home, but it could be some time before they are persuaded to return.

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Dr Rakib Ehsan is a researcher specialising in British ethnic minority socio-political attitudes, with a particular focus on the effects of social integration and intergroup relations.

 

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