If you’ve been following the news recently, you could be excused for thinking that the blockade in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Ansar Allah — commonly known as “the Houthis” — has been defeated. In recent months, we’ve heard barely a squeak from foreign policy “experts” about the insurgency. Does this mean the matter has been taken care of? Not quite.
Today, the blockade is stronger than ever, and the American military has given up on trying to lift it. Just a fortnight ago, faced with a deterrent bolstered by zero US aircraft carriers, the Houthis managed to board a Greek-flagged oil tanker, plant some explosives, and chant “Death to America! Death to Israel!” as the vessel went up in flames. Last week, the Pentagon quietly admitted that the tanker is still on fire and now appears to be leaking oil.
This should probably be huge news: one of the most important trade routes in the world is now blocked by a rag-tag group of militants, and the US Navy has thrown its hands up in defeat and sailed away. And yet, we just don’t want to talk about it.
The reason for this seems to be fairly straightforward: more than just sharing a sense of growing embarrassment, we no longer know how to talk about what’s going on. After all, America’s Navy is supposed to be the most powerful Navy in the world. As every war film of the past two decades has insisted on reminding us, all it takes is a single aircraft carrier to force a developing nation to its knees. America might not be great at “nation-building”, but boy does it know how to bomb things until all resistance stops.
Of course, Yemen is where these narratives collide with reality. Unlike Afghanistan or Iraq, the attempts to unblock the Suez do not really represent some sort of wasteful “war of choice”, one that we can simply walk away from when we grow bored. If the blockade holds, it will mean at least two things. First, the entire world will receive dramatic evidence of the growing military and political impotence of the West, which will have real-world consequences for Western diplomacy in regions like the Pacific. Second, and possibly more importantly, the Suez Canal is one of the most important trade routes in the world, and forcing container ships to go around it will manifest itself in supply crunches and structural inflation, particularly for European economies. Europe is already contending with the dual disease of anaemic growth and an energy crisis; a blockade of a major trade route is the opposite of what we need.
This is, however, exactly what has happened, and this time around, the US clearly doesn’t know what to do. In December last year, the US Navy and US Central Command first launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, which was supposed to safeguard shipping traffic against Houthi missile strikes. In January, when this mission began faltering, it launched Operation Poseidon Archer, designed to bomb the Houthis into submission and deter them from further attacks on trade. The result has been underwhelming in the extreme: months later, Yemeni casualties have amounted to “at least” 22 dead, while the US has lost several expensive MQ-9 reaper drones to Houthi anti-air missiles and two Navy SEALs who drowned while trying to impound a shipment of rocket components bound for Yemen.
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