Except that Leftists — including plenty of extremists — also have enough support in France for a parliamentary majority. They have formed a so-called New Popular Front (NPF), to ensure single unity candidates in all constituencies. Everybody from the relatively moderate Socialists — recent president François Hollande is a Front candidate — to radical Communists and Greens will comply, in an attempt to stymie the RN, who are also desperately trying to form electoral pacts with other Right-wing parties, such as the Republicans.

The latest polls put the RN and NPF at neck-and-neck, and well short of the 289 seats needed for a majority in the National Assembly. Throw in inevitable schisms between various alliance factions, as well as their fantastically naïve spending programmes, and there is likely to be a standard French parliament: angry, divided, and unable to get anything done.

Macron — who has never been an MP — is ruthlessly aware that the 5th Republic was founded in 1958 to ensure rock solid executive leadership following a long period of dysfunctional parliamentary government.

There were 21 administrations in the 12-year history of the 4th Republic, and an incredibly powerful leader was needed to bypass the intransigence. Thus, an overwhelmingly presidential system was created, allowing WWII leader Charles de Gaulle to return from the wilderness and to lead his country through multiple crises, not least of all the Algerian War of Independence.

Macron follows in the De Gaulle tradition: he is highly individualistic, elegantly manipulative, and so aloof that people call him Jupiter, after the Roman king of the gods. Despite occasional melodramatic language paying tribute to a sacred French citizenry, Macron’s governance has always been based on his own will, rather than any truly democratic instinct.

Presidential decrees — allowed by the much despised article 49.3 of the constitution — are regularly used to bypass parliament, even for highly controversial legislation. Pushing up the French retirement age from 62 to 64 in such a manner caused widespread rioting last summer, for example.

Chronic civil unrest has been an abiding feature of Macron’s time in office — who can forget the Gilets-Jaunes rebellions — but he cares little. Renaissance has not had a parliamentary majority since 2022, but this has by no means reduced Macron’s profile as a dynamic leader, both domestically and internationally.

Even his most fervent enemies — and there are many — can see how well he has played an archaic system to maximum effect, not least of all by coming from nowhere to win two presidential elections in a row.

The latest parliamentary poll is unlikely to go his way, but, ultimately, Macron is not a candidate. Whatever the result, he will remain in one of the most powerful executive positions on earth, and thus the only leader that really counts in an increasingly divided nation.

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Peter Allen is a journalist and author based in Paris.

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