As the Sixties entered its twilight period, Britain was more than ready for change. Beleaguered by inflation, stagnant industrial output and worsening trade-union relations, the Labour Party was on course for a major defeat. By the start of 1970, The Times had produced a poll that showed the Conservative Party was in line for a “landslide of almost 1945 proportions” and a majority of 180 seats. In response, Chancellor Roy Jenkins opted against a giveaway budget, stating that it would be “a vulgar piece of economic management”. But when news that the balance of trade was positive, the Cabinet urged him to cut fast and loose with an election.
Just as Rishi Sunak has now pinned his electoral hopes on changing inflation figures, Prime Minister Harold Wilson saw a small window of opportunity to go to the polls. There was just one problem: as Wilson himself recognised, “the conflict with the World Cup had to be considered”. If England were defeated just before polling day, the Government would surely suffer. But when the “mystical symbiosis”, as Roy Jenkins described it, of Labour and the England team winning in harmony was put before them, they had little option but to take it.
Wilson understood the fortunes of the England football team mattered more to people than the fortunes of his government. He had tried to use it to his advantage in 1966, when he ensured he was the keynote speaker at the launch of the tournament and made a rapid dash back from Canada on the day of the final to make sure he could bask in the glory of victory. Later, he joined the team at the Royal Garden Hotel to celebrate.
Some in the government believed victory in 1966 could turn the British economy around. Richard Crossman hoped it would “be a decisive factor in strengthening sterling” with the banks inspired by England’s “gallant fight”. But as the government continued to lose standing in the country and the polls, it proved to be a false dawn.
Rishi Sunak is the only other Prime Minister in half a century to pitch his hopes against the backdrop of an England campaign. Just like Wilson in 1970, he has been waiting for the first glimpse of economic good news to call it. And just like the England team in 1970, our boys head to Germany this summer as the favourites to win.
Had Sunak’s team looked at the Wilson campaign, however, they would have seen how quickly events on the football pitch can shape the feel of a campaign. And the omens do not look good.
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