FS: So is that is your biggest fear looking forward? That some kind of constitutional break might happen either at the end of his time in office, if he wants to stay longer or something along those lines?
AS: Yes. He has never accepted the result of an election he didn’t like, whether it was his own, or anybody else’s: you can go through the record. He just doesn’t believe that he needs to play by the rules. And he believes that if he loses, it’s because it’s rigged. Now, when a President stands up and says, “The entire system is rigged, you shouldn’t trust it, you should only trust me,” are you really saying it’s a responsible thing to support that person? When he’s already shown that he is indifferent to a peaceful transfer of power? Once already he has tried to stop himself being removed from office. He’s told us in advance that he won’t even recognise the results of this coming election if he loses. So we’re headed for a constitutional crisis if he doesn’t win outright, clearly.
FS: We’re possibly headed for a constitutional crisis if he does win also. You may get all sorts of constitutional tinkering being proposed by governors of states who reject a President Trump. We might start seeing the reverse of what we’re now seeing in Texas — blue states defying the President. There’ll be people on the streets if Trump is re-elected, surely?
AS: Yes, I think that there will be. And he has already said that he’s prepared to invoke the Insurrection Act if such violence takes place. Of course, he won’t be able to in November because he won’t be president till January. So martial law will have to wait. But nonetheless, it’s a slightly alarming prospect. And the fact that we’re at a point where both sides are beginning to say they don’t trust this election at all, and will inflict violence or demonstrate against it afterwards, just shows you the lengths to which we’ve gone. I think it is simply not fair to blame others for this. Others do bear some of the blame, but the chief driver in the delegitimisation of the American constitutional order is Donald J. Trump, because he cannot bear a system that might in any way at any point overrule his own wishes and his own interests.
FS: Let’s posit that he wins anyway. What do you think would happen policy-wise? Everyone here in Europe is discussing the risk of isolationism: the sense that if Trump wins, Nato is imperiled and support for Ukraine will either just stop abruptly or gradually fade away, and Europe will pretty much have to fend for itself. Do you think that’s true?
AS: I do, pretty much. Not just because he feels that way, but because a large majority of his own party believes that too (at least the base of the party, not the elites that are still part of the 20th-century architecture of international law). No, I think if he’s elected, then Ukraine will be partitioned. And I think at some point, Taiwan will be given over to China. And I think a large number of Americans will regard that as a pretty sensible, sane way of moving forward in the world.
FS: And would you be one of that large number of Americans?
AS: I’d be pretty close to them, yes. I don’t think there is a desire in the United States, nor has there really been for the last 20 years, for long engagement in conflicts far away. The people whose kids go to fight those wars don’t want their kids to go fight those wars. And a lot of people just simply look at the state of the US-Mexico border and say: why are we spending billions of dollars on the border between the Russian-dominated provinces in Ukraine and the rest of it? Why, when we can’t do it for our own border? That’s an incredibly potent argument.
FS: The world order is certainly going through a seismic shift, one that may involve war or will conflict being evaded and a deal being struck. The argument of those who support Trump would be that he’s not so deeply ideological, he likes a deal and, as you say, he’s not seriously attached to a particular set of principles. And they say: that’s the kind of leader we need right now to smooth things over.
AS: Yes. There are plenty of reasons, policy-wise, why I’d be happier with a Trump administration than a Biden one. There’s immigration, which I think the Democrats have completely screwed up. The numbers of people coming over are extraordinary at this point. And I think if he got a majority in the House and the Senate, he could easily pass immigration reform, and this time, unlike in 2016, he won’t be bamboozled by people like Paul Ryan into thinking that the most important thing is a tax cut for the super-wealthy.
I also think that regarding the wokeness stuff, even though I really find Trump horrid on so many levels, if he’s the only thing that can stop this stuff from being imposed across the country and across the United States Government, then you can see why I might prefer him over Biden, who is giving in to woke at every level. The federal government is involved in systematic DEI: in all of its capacities it now has putting equity at the heart of everything as a policy. He would remove that and there would be support for ending DEI in corporate America and in universities. He’s clearly taken out a position — even if he’s not interested in that stuff, he’ll find someone who is. And that’s a huge thing for the base. It would happen, I think.
FS: And meanwhile, he’s not homophobic especially is he?
AS: I don’t think there’s much evidence that he’s anti-gay. I don’t think any of the core civil rights that we’ve won — the right to marry, the right to be in the military — are in any way in doubt. What is in doubt is whether we should fast-track children for sexual transition, which is a hugely controversial and difficult issue. And I think he might help put the brakes on that.
FS: By your account, it’s sounding pretty good so far! What’s not to like about Trump II?
AS: The end of the rule of law and the end of the American Constitution, which are far, far more important.
FS: What about the Left? Just as you are evolving and looking again at some of his traits, do you think the Left will learn from the mistakes of 2016-2020, when they only exacerbated the polarisation by completely freaking out about Trump’s victory?
AS: No, they’ll go absolutely bonkers. But let’s talk about which elements. The upper-middle class white people will go bonkers. But what’s fascinating is that on the policy measures, African Americans, Latinos, Asians, even some gays, are moving in the direction of Trump in ways that could be truly devastating. It is perfectly possible Trump will win in a landslide. I think that’s more likely than any other actual scenario.
But what the Biden people say is that when push comes to shove, the idea of four more years of that kind of chaos is all the argument that they need. Just don’t vote for chaos. Stay where you are. Things are actually improving: the economy has done better in the United States than anywhere else in the world over the last few years and we are making progress on climate. There’s all sorts of things they can say. But they have a doddering, ancient guy who can’t really command the public’s attention. You have the impact of inflation, you have the failure on immigration. I think it’s Trump’s for the taking, I really do.
FS: It feels your heart and head are pointing in different directions. I asked about all the policy areas and you’re basically on board. But there’s this one principle, which you believe is most fundamental, which is that he doesn’t respect constitutional process.
AS: But that is the core question. In our democracies, policies come and go. All sorts of things change. All sorts of governments get things wrong. But the constitutional process allows us to change government to sustain a pluralistic democracy, to have a system where everyone respects the rule of law. Those things are what ultimately matter in a society.
FS: I’m going to leave it there because you’ve summed it up perfectly.
AS: Thank you for having me unspool all my conflicts in public. I do think it’s important for writers to do that occasionally. Because I don’t think my judgement was totally off, but I think it missed a few nuances, which you’ve now learned about. But I still cannot vote for Donald J. Trump.
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