Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has always been good at rattling cages among his western allies. His latest prolonged rattle, blocking Sweden’s application to join Nato in the wake of the war in Ukraine, apparently came to an end this week, but it’s not yet clear what exactly he’s received in return.
The Biden administration may have voiced support for selling Turkey new F-16 fighter jets, in the process vowing to conquer hesitation about any deal in the US Congress, but Erdogan’s most intriguing comments relate to matters closer to home.
As this week’s Nato summit began, the Turkish President proposed that Sweden’s Nato bid should be linked to his country’s application to join the European Union. This ambition has already been rejected by the European Commission, with the body pointing out that the EU and Nato are separate entities, with entirely different processes of accession.
European leaders and Brussels insiders have long disputed Turkey’s suitability as an EU candidate, citing democratic shortcomings and the country’s overwhelmingly Muslim population. This latter factor will likely be seized upon in member states like Poland, where ahead of this autumn’s elections both the governing party and the main opposition have raised fears over Muslim immigrants, and Hungary, whose Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has warned against “Muslim invaders” claiming to be refugees.
Turkey first applied for membership of the Common Market in the 1960s, finally opening formal membership negotiations with the EU in 2005, but progress since then has been almost glacial. Cyprus continues to block most initiatives, drawing attention to the EU’s tolerance of Turkish violations of international law. This standoff is unlikely to change so long as Turkish troops remain in the northern half of the island, where Turkey recognises and supports a breakaway state.
Meanwhile, Brussels’s focus is currently on beginning formal discussions about Ukraine’s potential EU membership before the end of the year. This is a massive undertaking, not to mention a complex process of reform that could stretch on for years. There’s little appetite for grasping the Turkish nettle at the same time.
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