If Giorgia Meloni can become Prime Minister of Italy, then why can’t Marine Le Pen become President of France?
She’s already made it to the final round twice — even if she did lose to Emmanuel Macron both times. However, she can’t lose to him a third time because, after two terms, he’s not allowed to run again. So, assuming that Le Pen has another crack at the Élysée Palace, she won’t have to face her nemesis.
In fact, there’s a strong case that she’s now the leading candidate. It’s still early days, of course, but a shock poll from Ifop-Fiducial gives us an insight into the current state of play.
The pollster assumes that Jean-Luc Mélenchon will be the leading candidate of the Left — which he probably will. They also have Éric Zemmour running as Le Pen’s rival on the hard Right, and Laurent Wauquiez as the conservative candidate. But who will replace Macron as the centrist candidate? That’s the crucial question, but the answer is uncertain. To explore the possibilities, Ifop presents separate scenarios for the best-known Macron allies, namely Édouard Philippe, Bruno Le Maire, Gérald Darmanin and François Bayrou.
The results make grim reading for the Macronistes, because in all four scenarios Le Pen wins the first round. The worst case scenario is if Bayrou stands against her. The veteran centrist would get just 9% of the vote compared to a crushing 36% for Le Pen. Because of his crucial endorsement in the 2017 election, Bayrou can be seen as the midwife of the Macron project; but if he runs in 2027, he could be its undertaker.
The best case scenario for the centrists is if they go with Philippe. The former prime minister would limit Le Pen to 29% of the vote — and, better still, he’d be the runner-up, thus advancing to the second round. In every other scenario the moderate candidates would be knocked out, leaving the political extremes to contest the presidency.
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