In a hypothetical Biden-versus-Trump contest in 2024, Trump beats Biden by six points. That compares to the 2020 result in which Biden took 51.3% of the popular vote to Trump’s 46.9%. 

Given his age, there’s a significant chance that President Biden won’t run for re-election. But if Vice President Kamala Harris runs instead, then the polling shows Trump winning by ten points — and there hasn’t been a victory that emphatic since Ronald Reagan trounced Walter Mondale in 1984.   

Of course, a lot could happen between now and the actual election in almost three years time. It’s by no means certain that Trump will even run again. One theory — advanced by Philip Bump in the Washington Post — is that “Trump is losing to Trumpism”. The idea is that having remade the Republicans in his own image, Trump is no longer the only Trumpian candidate — the party faithful now have a choice of younger models. 

One of the leading Trump-alternatives is Ron DeSantis, the Governor of Florida. He enjoys high net approval ratings, but when he’s paired against Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 Presidential contest he only wins by a single percentage point (see above). 

It’s not surprising that the clearest signifier of Trumpism is still Donald Trump himself. But what will come as a surprise to many — indeed a shock — is that the brand is back in favour.