September 27, 2021 - 2:00pm
Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) have just won their first federal election in nearly twenty years (just). So expect yesterday’s big result to be spun into a narrative of social democratic revival.
After the grim years of ‘Pasokification’ the traditional parties of the centre-Left are back! And it’s not just Germany — just look at the Norwegian general election earlier this month.
However, the narrative doesn’t really stand up. Let’s start with Germany. The SPD result wasn’t bad by 21st century standards — they won 25.7% of the vote, compared to shares for the previous three elections of 20.5%, 25.7% and 23.0%. However, by the standards of the later 20th century — when the SPD was one of only two major parties, yesterday’s result was abysmal.
It was also a bit of a fluke. Until a few months ago, the SPD was heading for its worst result since the war. The only thing that saved their speck was that both the Christian Democrats and the Greens chose terrible candidates for the Chancellorship — leaving the SPD’s Olaf Scholz to succeed by default. They were also helped by the fact that the German parties of populist Right and Left are in disarray.
As for Norway, the social democrats actually lost votes in this month’s general election. They remain the largest party, but their likely coalition partners in government will be two eurosceptic parties — the agrarian Centre Party and the Socialist Left.
Meanwhile in Iceland — which had its general election on Saturday — both the Left and centre-Left lost ground and the government will remain strongly eurosceptic.
Look elsewhere in Europe and evidence of a social democratic revival is also thin on the ground. In this year’s Dutch general election, the once mighty Labour Party stayed stuck on less than 6% of the vote (despite the decline of rival Left-wing parties).
This doesn’t mean that the parties of the mainstream centre-Right are doing brilliantly either. In many countries they too are doing badly. Who then has benefited from the meltdown of the traditional Left-versus-Right party system?
There’s no clear pattern. Depending on the country it may be a combination of one or some of the following: populists, separatists, Leftists, liberals, centrists, greens and ‘pirate’ parties. The system is in constant flux and we should expect the unexpected — see the recent election of an anti-vax party in Austria.
The only thing we can be sure about is that politics is not going back to normal — whatever that was.
Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.
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SubscribeIf one thing shines through from the antics of the media and politicians around the world over the past 18 months is that the old traditional left-right view of the world or rather govern it, is that it is no longer relevant. I have read so many blogs from left to right. I find myself agreeing with those on the right who, 2 years ago, I would have shouted at on Question Time! Likewise I am ashamed by the beliefs or rather mandatory imposition of THEIR beliefs from those on the left I used to agree with.
So here we are with certain people from the traditional right and certain people from the traditional left stating the same thing. It seems like we are splitting into two viewpoints:
A. Those who favour centralised mechanisms of control. Whether that is the global capitalist or the socialist state controlled organisations. They both behave the same, they both require the same control, they both demand a compliant and obedient population. The people behind this belief have an arrogance born out of their education or birth right. Democracy is a token gesture you simple “appoint” a figurehead to keep the Oligarch juggernaut rolling on.
B. Those who favour a de-centralised system. Yes I really do mean small businesses, the farmers market approach. Democracy needs to be totally overhauled and made much smaller. we cannot allow it to grow so big it is no longer relevant to those it is intended to serve. No more money in politics. No more careers in politics, you serve ONE term.
We know how “A” looks once completed its in book available on Amazon written by Klaus Schwab. How “B” would look I don’t yet know. I suspect this will need some serious brainstorming to sort out. The problem is “B” is running out of time………
I want B please not much liking A which seems to be rapidly taking control.
To be honest I think the left-leaning media will latch onto anything that indicates that their time has come again and milk it for all it’s worth, regardless of the true reasons. The state of denial that they’ve been in, believing that their traditional voters are running away because they’re dumb and will return to the fold once they realise their own stupidity in voting for other parties, is ongoing. Neither Labour, nor the SPD, nor the SPÖ (which is the SPD’S equivalent here in Austria) are producing any really good or consistent policy ideas; there’s no initiative and no vision: just mud-slinging and waiting for others (who are probably also pretty rubbish) to fail so they win by default and put it down to their own moral superiority. See Exhibit A: Angela Rayner.
I see the result of the German election as a collective shrug on the part of the electorate who are concerned about a range of issues in Germany but are anxious about the future and just want a comfort-blanket Kanzler who is as much like Merkel as possible. Scholz (sort of) fits that bill. And he only won on that front because Laschet and Baerbock were so toe-curlingly bad.
I upvote this article for ‘saved their speck‘ alone.
Spot on. Some months ago a german news magazine (I believe it was Der Spiegel) asked the question “What is Olaf Scholz´ secret”?. The answer was blindingly obvious: the other two candidates. The Greens have become victims of their own reverse sexism by putting up Annalena Baerbock as their candidate instead of the vastly more experienced and very popular Robert Habeck. The CDU paid the price for prioritising party politics over electoral success by choosing Armin Laschet over Markus Söder from the CSU. Serves them right.