At the start of the year, a spokesman for Kemi Badenoch made a bold commitment: that the Tory leader would not reshuffle the Shadow Cabinet before the next general election. And yet here we are, six months later, with GB News, the Times, and Guido Fawkes all predicting a Tory reshuffle in the coming week.

With the benefit of hindsight — or, indeed, the slightest degree of foresight, had it been available — the promise of no change at the top looks rather foolish. Sometimes ministers and shadow ministers need to be sacked, and sometimes they just leave of their own volition. The latter appears to be the case this time, with rumours that at least two Shadow Cabinet ministers are keen to quit. According to the Times, “allies” of Robert Jenrick are also pushing for their man to replace the solid but unexciting Mel Stride as Shadow Chancellor.

What to do with Jenrick is Badenoch’s thorniest problem right now. If she does give him Stride’s job, then she’ll diminish her own authority, given earlier promises. She could go the other way and sack him, but that would set him free to speak out against her — especially if his removal looks like jealousy. The safest thing for her to do — superficially, at least — is to leave him where he is. But that would reinforce the accusations of less-than-masterful inaction which have dogged her leadership so far.

Much better, then, to create a tailor-made job for Jenrick by appointing him to the unfilled position of deputy leader. He could take charge of the policy renewal process while overhauling the party’s woeful comms operation.

But why should Jenrick be satisfied with any sort of promotion under the current leader? It’s still widely assumed within Tory circles that she could be out by the end of the year and that he is her most likely successor. However, he has three reasons to stay his hand. Firstly, he won’t want to be seen as a political assassin. Unless he’s demoted, expect Jenrick to express satisfaction with whatever happens next week.

Secondly, Badenoch doesn’t look quite so doomed as she did back in May. Her parliamentary performances have improved, as have her ratings in the ConservativeHome shadow cabinet league table. Labour is in deep trouble and facing the threat of a Corbyn-led party of the Left; Reform UK’s momentum has been slowed by internal ructions; and the Liberal Democrats have failed to capitalise on a modest surge of support earlier this year. If only by default, the Tory mood of darkest despair has momentarily lightened.

The third reason why Jenrick might want to hang back is that there’s a delicate pruning job to be done to the Tory front benches. Last year’s leadership contenders, Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly, ought to be enticed back. Meanwhile, the best thinkers in the Conservative ranks — including Nick Timothy, Neil O’Brien and Danny Kruger — are due for promotions, as are rising stars such as Katie Lam. Inevitably, that means clearing out some space at the top, which is a painful operation in a parliamentary party of just 120 MPs.

In other words: why not let Badenoch wield the axe? Either she’ll fumble the task, thus accelerating her departure — or she’ll get it done, leaving the party in a better state for her successor.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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