British Indians are one of the most successful ethnic groups in modern Britain when it comes to education, income and assimilation. In recent times, a growing number of British Indians, especially older Gujarati Hindus with strong cultural links to their ancestral homeland, have shifted their support to the Conservative Party. Many lost patience with Labour trying harder to please British Muslims than Hindus on domestic and foreign policy. But if an election were held today, which party would win the British Indian vote?

According to fresh data from the 1928 Institute, a think tank formed by University of Oxford academics of Indian heritage, British Indians are more polarised than ever before. This is particularly notable on the farther ends of the spectrum. Support for Reform UK is up at 13% from 4% at the last election; support for the Greens has also risen to 13%, up from 8% last year. Some 21% of British Indians voted Tory at the last election, with this backing falling to 18%. Meanwhile, support for Labour has dropped dramatically from 48% to 35%. More than a quarter, then, find anti-establishment parties attractive.

This is somewhat paradoxical. The community has historically been socially and economically conservative, albeit with a significant progressive-voting bloc. But now there is widespread dissatisfaction. To understand why, we need to look at which policies British Indians prioritise.

What’s interesting is that in the new research from the 1928 Institute, immigration and asylum — which are the sources of much of the country’s frustration — don’t feature in the top 10 priorities. British Indians are much more concerned about education, the economy, and healthcare, which reflects longstanding traditional values around equality of opportunity and social mobility. Indeed, “the environment/climate change”, “equality/human rights”, and “arts/culture/media” all rank higher than “immigration/asylum”. This tells the story of a relatively youthful electorate with its fair share of formally-educated metropolitan sophisticates who are comparatively relaxed about migration.

It is clear that recent immigration from India is shaping the British Indian electorate and moulding it into a more progressive and Left-leaning one. According to the Migration Observatory, between 2021 and the end of 2024 Indian was the most common single nationality of people migrating to the UK, with around 850,000 Indian nationals arriving during these years. That means Indians made up a quarter of non-EU arrivals (24%) and almost a fifth of arrivals of all nationalities (19%). Around one in seven British Indians arrived in the UK, either on their own or with their family, this century.

The 1928 Institute’s data backs up this idea that there is a split in the group. While Reform UK’s support is particularly high among older British Indians who have lived in the UK for decades and are likely to have close ties with the British Indian Army and Merchant Navy, the Left-of-centre parties are far more popular with the university-educated young and recently-arrived migrants.

This increased support for the Greens and Reform UK shows that a greater proportion of British Indians — historically viewed as traditional and anti-radical — are open to the “populist” options on both the Left and the Right. Factors such as migratory background and length of time spent in Britain are driving this Reform-Greens divide and complicates the idea that there is a singular “British Indian interest” to which parties can appeal.

Years away from an election, it’s hard to say whether this anti-establishment turn will harden and become entrenched. If it does, it’s yet another blow to the flagging main parties.

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Dr Rakib Ehsan is a researcher specialising in British ethnic minority socio-political attitudes, with a particular focus on the effects of social integration and intergroup relations.

 

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