November 7, 2025 - 2:30pm
Germany’s governing coalition, made up of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), already looks extremely fragile. Despite only taking office in May, two weeks ago Chancellor Friedrich Merz admitted: “There have been too many public discussions that have been interpreted as disputes.” He added that “the government must not give the impression that it is divided.” But divided it is.
Last month, polling for the German newspaper Bild showed that fewer than one-third of Germans think the ruling coalition will be able to govern until the end of its term in 2029. Approval of the government has fallen to a record low of 25%, while the Right-wing AfD is now the country’s most popular party, according to Politico’s poll tracker.
Observers will be focusing on the crucial coalition meeting on 13 November, when Merz will press the case for more reforms. So far, he has over-promised and under-delivered. The CDU has been focused on changes to welfare, looking to refuse payment in extreme cases if recipients refuse to work. It also wants to rename the scheme “new basic security”, as the current “citizen’s income”, according to CDU Secretary General Carsten Linnemann, “suggests that every citizen is entitled to it”.
Naturally, this is galling to the centre-left. Lars Klingbeil, the SPD co-leader, is under pressure from the Left of his party not to agree to such changes, but his ability to veto is limited. The atmosphere is becoming poisonous. In a coalition, most of the work happens between the leaders of the Bundestag groups, and this is where the relationship has broken down. Jens Spahn, the leader of the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag, said in a reference to the SPD: “We will not die with them.” There was a short period of mutual trust, but this is already gone.
A new election is out of the question, if only because it would not resolve the problem for either coalition partner. Both are down in the polls. The one alternative option Merz has at his disposal is one of a minority government. The CDU’s firewall precludes it not only from forming a coalition with the AfD or Die Linke, but also from entering into a confidence-and-supply agreement.
There is nothing to stop Merz from passing legislation with the help of the AfD. But this would give the latter enormous power, including the power to trigger early elections simply by refusing to cooperate. For example, if the coalition were to break up this month — which is highly unlikely — the Bundestag would not pass the 2026 budget. A failure to agree on a budget would almost surely trigger elections. The old budget would roll over, but Germany’s promised increase in defence spending, for example, would be on hold. Merz would have to feel he had exhausted every other option before taking this course of action.
If the AfD continues to climb in the opinion polls, the pressure on the Chancellor to pass some legislation with the far-Right’s support will increase. If he doesn’t, establishment critics will emphasise how undemocratic it is that all the groups in the Bundestag have agreed to a firewall against the country’s most popular party. Merz’s coalition, like most coalitions, is unlikely to become more stable any time soon.
This is an edited version of an article which originally appeared in the Eurointelligence newsletter.
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