Getting tough on migration is the strongest unifying theme for hard-Right parties across Europe. The AfD, Brothers of Italy, Vox, Chega and more have all built a strong electoral base on policies aimed at drastically restricting the flow of migrants into their countries. It seems to resonate with a European electorate that is increasingly worried about overburdened public services and fraying social cohesion.

It’s no surprise, then, that the ruling European centre is starting to take note. This week, Greece’s migration minister Thanos Plevris told the press that his country, Germany and other EU countries were looking for partners in Africa to set up so-called “return hubs”. In plans that are still in the discussion phase, rejected asylum seekers could be sent to third-party countries, even if they do not originate from there.

Despite the plan, there is evidence to suggest that migration numbers are already on the decline. Germany’s interior minister recently boasted that tightened border controls and suspended family reunification have led to a 60% drop in asylum applications. But the fall in numbers is not just due to stricter German border controls. Migration researcher Birgit Glorius told the German public broadcaster Tagesschau that the decline has more to do with the end of the civil war in Syria along with tighter controls on the Balkan route in Greece and Austria.

Will the plan to send migrants to Africa be an effective next step? The legality and humanity of the proposals are highly dubious. It is likely to conflict with the principle of non-refoulement under international law and exposes migrants to potential danger. How will EU member states, which remain responsible for human rights violations in the third countries, monitor conditions there and enforce change? It did not work so well in Tunisia.

Other previous policies along these lines have also been incredibly ineffective. Italy’s policy attempting to outsource its asylum processing to Albania had to be stopped due to legal hurdles and high costs, even if Giorgia Meloni has suggested that she’s determined to continue the policy. The UK Labour Party scrapped the attempts of the previous Conservative government to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda in part due to its unpopularity with the public.

Much of the debate in the media focuses on irregular migration, but there is legal migration too. Most countries in the EU are facing the prospect of shrinking populations yet the hurdles for migrants to work there are increasing. Non-EU citizens are already making up 6% of the EU workforce and are covering occupations with labour shortages. But there are significant obstacles such as language skills in the host country or qualification recognition.

Removals to third countries may appeal to significant swathes of the European electorate. But even if it does become policy, it is likely to be mired in legal troubles like the Rwanda policy.

This is an edited version of an article which originally appeared in the Eurointelligence newsletter.