With Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) sweeping through US cities in dramatic fashion, Republicans and Democrats both seem convinced that the tactics amount to a political gift. So the real question is: does the public agree with Donald Trump’s moves?

Immigration polling can be all over the map, but RealClearPolitics produces a polling average to assess Trump’s approval on immigration. He’s currently four points underwater, with an average 50.5% disapproval to 46.5% approval. Looking at one poll in the RCP average, the Economist/YouGov survey from early February — conducted just after the inauguration — showed the President’s approval on immigration up eight points. The most recent iteration now has him three points lower. Political analyst Nate Silver this week observed a similar decline as well.

It’s not all bad news for Trump. Just last week, the New York Times reported on its latest survey that “nine months into President Trump’s mass deportation campaign, registered voters largely support the idea of removing immigrants who have arrived in the country illegally, even as majorities say they feel his methods have gone too far.” The Times added: “More specifically, 51% said they thought the government was deporting mostly people who ‘should be deported’, while 42% said the government was deporting the wrong people.”

Republicans are under pressure from their base to increase deportations, while Democrats are under pressure from their base to resist those deportations at all costs. Joe Rogan, often a bellwether for young male public opinion, also criticised ICE’s efforts this week as going too far.

In the short term, both parties have reason to indulge in performative toughness: with an election year approaching, dramatic ICE raids are an easy way to rally their respective grassroots. But as the midterms draw nearer and raids continue across the country, Republicans may find the politics shifting. A new YouGov poll this week found that far more Americans say they have “no confidence at all” in ICE than a “great deal of confidence” — 38% versus 26%.

But the long-term picture isn’t much better for Democrats, who are unified under the banner of disagreeing with Trump on immigration, but lack consensus on their own policies. The party’s moderate wing has pushed a new framework that pairs increased border funding and technology with faster asylum processing and expanded legal immigration pathways. Progressives, meanwhile, want to go further — creating a path to citizenship for undocumented migrants, limiting ICE’s authority, and ending family detention entirely. The result is a muddled message: a party torn between enforcing the border and reimagining it. That’s likely why voters still give Republicans a nearly 20-point advantage when it comes to which party has a better plan on immigration, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll last month.

Joe Biden rode to victory in 2020 partly because Trump’s hardline tactics on immigration — harsh even by past Republican standards — shifted public sentiment toward lenience. But Trump’s resurgence owes much to the backlash that followed: the Biden administration interpreted that sentiment as a mandate for openness, overseeing a historic surge in both legal and illegal migration that left many voters disillusioned.

The reason America keeps swinging between harsh and lenient immigration policies is likely the stark gap between the bases of each party. For Trump, high-profile detentions — including social media videos showing parents separated from children or spouses torn apart — carry the risk of energising Democratic voters. But Democrats, if they appear too aligned with raucous protests and fail to articulate a coherent, moderate plan, risk alienating the broader electorate on an issue where even the President’s approval is shaky. The result is a cycle of political overcorrection, with each party alternately courting its base at the expense of the centre, leaving voters whiplashed by extremes rather than guided by consistent policy.

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Emily Jashinsky is UnHerd‘s Washington correspondent.

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