When Russian drones strayed into Polish airspace, the first — and loudest — alarms were raised not in Warsaw but in Kyiv.

When they did respond, Polish officials struck a careful balance. They condemned the breach of sovereignty but stopped short of calling it an attack or invoking Nato’s Article 5, which could have triggered debate over collective retaliation. In Kyiv, by contrast, the language was far sharper. Ukraine’s defence minister branded the incident a “military crime” and warned that Russia was preparing to “be ready for war with Nato”. The strategy was plain: to frame the incursion in terms that might draw Europe and the United States more deeply into the conflict.

In UnHerd today, Michal Kranz argues that Russia’s “battleground” has now “dramatically shifted westward” to eastern Poland and the Baltic states. There is no question that the breach was a violation of Polish airspace and another example of Russia’s habitual grey-zone harassment of its European neighbours — but little more.

Washington and Brussels must resist both the scaremongering and the pressure to hit back at Moscow with fresh military or economic measures. A wider war is not in anyone’s interests, not even Kyiv’s. If anything, the events in Poland underscore the urgency of ending the war quickly. The Trump administration should double down on diplomacy, not coercion.

Kyiv’s story, though hyped up, has at least been consistent. Calling the incident an escalation, Ukrainian officials have described it as a test of Nato and part of Russia’s preparation for a larger war with Europe. There’s little evidence for any of these arguments.

Most importantly, it’s still not clear whether the drones went astray due to a targeting error, were diverted by electronic jamming in Ukraine, or were intentionally set on a course to fly into Poland. Regardless, the drone incursion was hardly an attack. The drones were a mix of decoys and reconnaissance craft, with no obvious Polish targets.

Context matters. The incident took place against the backdrop of a war in which Nato — Poland included — is an active, if indirect, participant. Russia may be probing at Nato’s red lines, but the US and Europe have responded in kind, steadily expanding both the scale of military aid and the permissions granted to Ukraine. The breach of Polish sovereignty is serious, but it is still a stretch to interpret it as preparation for a Russian invasion of Nato.

Kyiv’s reason for wanting to inflate the Russian threat to Europe is obvious. It is desperate. Its situation on the battlefield is increasingly dire. It lacks sufficient manpower to hold its current positions and its frontline is dangerously near a cascading collapse at key strategic locations. Meanwhile, domestic support for the war is flagging and Donald Trump is increasingly frustrated with all parties — not just Russia. He has also been unwilling to levy additional punishments on Vladimir Putin and has come to see the Europeans as spoilers.

Ukraine’s leaders have therefore seized on the drone incursion as an opportunity, hoping that by encouraging Europe’s fear and putting US military credibility on the line, they can provoke Nato into a more heavy-handed or direct response. So far, this strategy is failing.

In the coming weeks, the Trump administration will face pressure to increase sanctions, offer Ukraine more longer-range missiles, or support a Nato mission to defend Ukraine’s skies. Trump and his advisors should decline in the strongest terms. Expanded US engagement in the war in Ukraine is not in US interests, no matter what happened in Poland.

If anything, Wednesday’s events should remind Washington that reducing US entanglement in Ukraine is urgent and necessary. If Trump prefers to do this by brokering a deal, rather than walking away, then reaching a settlement must become his administration’s highest priority.

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Jennifer Kavanagh is a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities.

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