What exactly does Andy Burnham think he’s doing? Speculation that Labour’s Mayor of Greater Manchester is preparing a leadership bid against Keir Starmer has been rife in the weekend newspapers and, so far, he’s done little to calm the situation.

As well as setting up a Labour grouping called “Mainstream” (basically, a Burnham supporters’ club), he’s backing Lucy Powell for the vacant deputy leader position, which is awkward because Starmer sacked her from the Cabinet in this month’s reshuffle. What’s more, it’s reported that Burnham will be calling for a “reset” at Labour Party conference later this month, despite the Prime Minister having just launched his government’s “phase two”. One might also note the coincidence between the timing of these manoeuvres and the damaging fallout from the Peter Mandelson fiasco.

Nevertheless, it’s worth asking why Burnham has chosen to strike now. He’s correct about Labour needing a reset, while it’s also probably true that this now requires a new leader. Given that he is not an MP, Burnham is currently ineligible to challenge Starmer, hence the talk of a convenient by-election somewhere in the Greater Manchester area. Gorton and Denton MP Andrew Gwynne was suspended from the Labour Party earlier this year after a social media gaffe, while it’s now being suggested that veteran Labour MP Graham Stringer — no fan of Starmer — might step down in Blackley and Middleton South.

But the trouble with those options is that both seats are vulnerable to Reform UK. The latest Nowcast projection shows Reform already out in front in Stringer’s seat and within touching distance of Labour in Gwynne’s. In fact, across all of Greater Manchester only two seats are currently rated by Nowcast as “safe” or “likely” for Labour: Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme.

And yet, despite his highly uncertain path back to Westminster, it makes sense for Burnham to choose this moment to raise the temperature. If he does have to fight a make-or-break by-election against Reform, then it’s essential that he can present himself as the change candidate. Indeed, if his victory isn’t seen as the worst possible news for Starmer then he won’t win. Secondly, his chances are improved if he can make his move before Jeremy Corbyn’s party fully launches itself. Even if the Corbynites have no chance of winning the by-election, they could take away enough Labour votes to let Reform in.

Thirdly, while Angela Rayner’s resignation has left Burnham as the most obvious replacement for Starmer, a longer delay before a leadership challenge provides more time for alternatives to emerge. Possibilities include new Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Bridget Phillipson, who is the current frontrunner for the deputy leadership.

Of course, there’s always the possibility that Starmer himself concludes that he’s done for and steps down voluntarily. This could then force a leadership election before Burnham can engineer his way back as an MP, ensuring that another candidate would be chosen. It’s become clear to everyone that Starmer is running out of time. Less obvious, but still important, is that the same applies to Burnham.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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