To German chancellor Friedrich Merz’s relief, his party, the Christian Democrats (CDU), held their ground in yesterday’s local election in his home state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The CDU won 34% of the vote, according to initial forecasts, down just 0.3% compared to 2020. Merz’s junior coalition partners, the Social Democrats, came in second with 22%, a poor result in a region that includes the economically depressed Ruhr Valley, with its closed coal mines and antiquated steel mills. What was once known as the “heart chamber of the SPD” is now more often dubbed Germany’s “Rust Belt”.

With over 18 million inhabitants, North Rhine-Westphalia is a country unto itself, larger than its neighbour The Netherlands, and home to more eligible voters than the entire former East. What happens in the largest German state is vital to the country as a whole, and Sunday’s election was the first real barometer reading on Merz since he formed his government in May.

The big winner on the night was the Right-wing AfD, which tripled its support to 16%. In run-down, post-industrial Gelsenkirchen — which has a large immigrant population and some of the highest rates of unemployment in the country — the AfD is almost on par with the SPD, with both winning around a third of the vote. Party co-leader Tino Chrupalla commented on Sunday: “We’re now a mainstream party and we all bear a great responsibility for Germany.” The election provided further evidence that the AfD is steadily gaining support in the former West, especially in economically depressed areas, following its continued success in the East.

Meanwhile, the losers from yesterday’s vote were the environmentalist, progressive Greens, which have traditionally been strong in North Rhine-Westphalia’s large multicultural cities like Cologne and university towns such as Bonn and Münster. Their share of the vote fell to 11.5%, down from nearly 20%. Green concerns about the climate and support for refugees have fallen largely out of vogue, while the Left-wing Die Linke, which received a small boost, likely attracted pacifist Greens defectors, troubled by the party’s support of plans to boost Germany’s military.

The parties which form the government coalition at least did better than their national result, suggesting some satisfaction with Merz, who can point to success on at least one issue: immigration. Asylum applications are down by 43%, and have dropped below levels in France and Spain. Nonetheless, poor Ruhr cities such as Gelsenkirchen and Duisburg continue to struggle with large populations of immigrants, particularly from southeastern Europe. Poor integration, poverty and crime are huge issues in these cities, and it’s here that the anti-immigration AfD is attracting some of its strongest support.

Deindustrialisation is also a significant problem, with high energy prices — linked to decarbonisation plans promoted by Greens and Social Democrats — often blamed for plant closures. A “green steel” project in the Ruhr, massively subsidised by the previous “traffic light” governing coalition, is set to flop. Yet voters appear to be giving Merz, who’s only been in office for a few months, the benefit of the doubt when it comes to reviving Germany’s stagnant economy.

CDU parliamentary leader Jens Spahn referred to the results as a “tailwind for the coalition in Berlin”. That’s probably an exaggeration: local elections are, after all, still largely about local issues and local politicians. Meanwhile, the AfD, though it still has some way to go, is making inroads in areas where it was once largely invisible.

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Maurice Frank co-founded the English magazine Exberliner and now co-writes the newsletter 20 Percent Berlin. 

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