Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the foreign policy of Georgia’s ruling party has been nothing short of schizophrenic. For years, Georgian Dream has been flirting with both the European Union and paradoxically with Moscow, Georgia’s age-old enemy which invaded the country in 2008 and still occupies 20% of its territory. But in light of the deep geopolitical cleavages that have emerged since 2022, such a delicate balancing act was always bound to fail.
At times, Georgia has appeared committed to closer ties with the EU. In December 2022, along with Azerbaijan and EU members Romania and Hungary, it signed a momentous deal to build an electric cable running 1,200km under the Black Sea as part of a project that would reduce the EU’s reliance on Russian oil and gas. A year later, in December 2023, Georgia was granted candidate status by the EU, which then-Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, a member of Georgian Dream, hailed as a “historic victory”.
Yet despite its ever-closer ties with Europe, Georgian Dream, whose party chairman is a Georgian oligarch is closely linked to Russia, has simultaneously been soft on Moscow since the war broke out. In February 2022, it refused to join Europe in imposing sanctions on Russia when it invaded Ukraine. Georgia went on to become a key conduit for Russia-bound goods, playing a crucial part in helping Russia’s economy weather Western sanctions. It welcomed Russia’s suspension of a flight ban to Georgia in 2023, and repeatedly accused the West of trying to draw it into the war in Ukraine.
Now, Georgia Dream appears to have made its final choice. Last Tuesday, after weeks of some of the largest protests Tbilisi has ever seen, the party passed a highly controversial foreign agents law, under which any NGOs or media outlets receiving more than 20% of their funding from overseas would have to register as “organisations serving the interests of a foreign power”. The law would effectively force certain political groups opposed to Georgian Dream to register as foreign agents or face large fines, and although Georgian Dream has maintained the law is about transparency, its leaders have already suggested it would be used to shield Georgia from Western liberal values. The vote was preceded by a brawl in Parliament; afterwards, raging protestors besieged the building. On Saturday, Georgia’s pro-EU President Salome Zourabichvili said she had vetoed the law, but her opposition will very likely be merely symbolic — Georgian Dream is anticipated to override the veto as soon as later this month.
Protesters have compared the law to Russian legislation used by the Kremlin to punish dissenters and force opposition non-profits to close. Many fear it will be used to the same ends in Georgia. But according to Inal Khashig, a journalist and political commentator from Abkhazia, one of the two Georgian regions under Russian occupation, it is what the law symbolises that is most concerning: “Few people understand, but the Law on Foreign Agents has a certain sacred meaning for the Kremlin,” Khashig wrote on Telegram. “This is a kind of oath of allegiance. Something like Kipling’s ‘you and I are of the same blood’.”
If the law stands, and Georgian Dream escalates its crackdown on protestors using state-backed campaigns of intimidation, police violence, and armed thugs it has already unleashed on crowds over the last few weeks, Georgia will end up ostracised by Europe and the US and find itself steadily pulled back into Moscow’s orbit. This scenario risks threatening not only Georgia, but the whole of Europe, disturbing security and trade across Eurasia as well as EU energy politics and even the war in Ukraine.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
Subscribe