Note, also, that these results are for a single shot of the vaccine. The second shot should produce even better outcomes. Nevertheless, the degree of protection already achieved has triumphantly vindicated the decision to spread out the shots in order to vaccinate as many vulnerable people as possible. More reason, then, for Macron to eat his words — because as well as pouring doubt on the efficacy of the virus, he poured scorn on the UK’s first shot first strategy, stating: “I’m not sure that it’s very serious.”
Well, it is serious, as are the consequences of the EU’s sour grapes. The irony of the supply dispute with AstraZeneca is that shots of the vaccine are now going unused in the EU, because intended recipients (like the older under-65s and health workers) are worried there might be something wrong with it. In Germany, regional governments are pleading with Berlin for permission to reassign doses to people in lower priority groups who are willing to take it.
The contrast with the British experience becomes more embarrassing by the day. Though one would expect Covid deaths to fall as a result of the UK strict lockdown, they’ve been tumbling fastest among the most extensively inoculated age groups — compelling evidence that our vaccine strategy is working.
The Europe Union is now waking up to what it needlessly missed out on. Worried EU governments are now desperately reassuring their populations that the Oxford AZ vaccine is safe and effective. The French have just relaxed the restriction on the vaccine’s use among the over 65s. The Germans are likely to follow suit. Thomas Mertens, head of Germany’s expert panel on vaccine use, has promised an “update” to the current regulations. He was at pains to point out that the existing restriction were never about safety concerns and added that “somehow the whole thing went kind of badly wrong.” Yeah, “somehow”.
In the latest blow to European solidarity, Denmark and Austria have chosen to go their own way, obtaining vaccines via Israel; Slovakia has joined Hungary in acquiring the Russia Sputnik vaccine, believed to be safe although yet to be approved by Brussels; while Poland is considering a deal with China.
And yet the EU’s leaders continue to send the wrong signals. Last week, Angela Merkel said that she would not take the Oxford AZ vaccine herself. Her British defenders point out that this is only because she is 66 and thus just above the age at which the current restrictions kick-in. But, as usual, her apologists miss the point. The rules — which she is ultimately responsible for — are ridiculous and should not exist in the first place. As leader of her country, millions of people will follow her lead.
Of course, hers is not the only screw-up in this pandemic. There isn’t a country in the world that hasn’t got it wrong repeatedly — and the UK is clearly no exception. However, it’s important that we distinguish between the different kinds of mistake.
About a year ago, Britain should have gone into lockdown at least two weeks before it actually did. However, our Government was acting on official scientific advice that was unfortunately wrong. Other failures arise out of the sheer scale of the challenge, test-and-trace being a prime example. We can test at scale, but tracing is supremely difficult when transmission is so widespread. It might have helped if we’d closed our borders at the outset — but that’s an illustration of a third kind of mistake, those that happen when governments are faced with impossible dilemmas. Choosing the lesser of two evils isn’t easy when they’re both overwhelmingly horrible.
The mistakes made by Brussels, Paris and Berlin over recent weeks have been of a different type, and were entirely avoidable. In deciding policy towards AstraZeneca and its vaccine, the scientific advice (from the EMA) wasn’t wrong, the challenges weren’t insurmountable and the choices far from impossible. There was no question as to the safety of the vaccine. There was a degree of uncertainty as to its effectiveness, but good reason to expect a beneficial outcome. After all, for millions of elderly and vulnerable Europeans the alternative isn’t a better vaccine, but no vaccine — a famously ineffective treatment.
The mistake made in this matter was not an honest one. There’s only one motivation that fits with the facts — spite.
As an institution, the EU displays a pattern of behaviour that in an individual would be diagnosed as petty narcissism. We all know the type of person: the character flaw isn’t obvious at first, but they soon give themselves away. In place of the usual give-and-take of a healthy human relationship, they think they’re doing you a favour just by allowing you to interact with them. Furthermore, you will be expected to pay for the privilege. This means abiding by their rules; having to guess what they want without being told; prioritising your relationship with them above any other attachment. Resist their nonsense and you’ll be accused of being the unreasonable one.
If an impasse is reached or you walk away, they won’t wish you well. Indeed, like Jean-Claude Juncker insisting that “Brexit cannot be a success”, they’ll want to you fail without them. And, of course, that’ll be your fault, not theirs. It’s abusive and manipulating, but ultimately self-destructive.
Instead of bullying and then belittling AstraZeneca and the UK, the EU could have chosen the path of cooperation. Even if they genuinely did have questions about the vaccine and the UK’s vaccination strategy they could have kept an open mind — and thus the option to follow suit. As it is, they’ve ensured that any change of mind can only come with a maximum of political embarrassment and humiliation.
Well, never mind — let them pay with their blushes. After all, their people are paying with their lives.
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