A more immediate challenge to coherent European strategic action comes from Turkey, an illiberal challenger to Europe’s collective sovereignty, deeply intertwined with Germany both demographically and economically. France’s dispute with Erdogan over Turkey’s arms shipments to Libya, encroachment in Greek and Cypriot waters and malign role in Syria is rapidly escalating. Last week, France withdrew from joint NATO naval operations in the Mediterranean in protest, and French foreign minister Yves Le Drian is convening a special EU summit to address the Turkey question, threatening sanctions in retaliation.
Austria will likely support the French moves, especially after being forced to summon Turkey’s ambassador for a dressing down last week after the Turkish foreign ministry condemned Austrian police for dispersing a mob of Turkish ultranationalists attempting to burn down a Kurdish community centre in the centre of Vienna. “I know exactly what Turkey is trying to do here, namely to use the Turks in Europe to sow strife and to campaign above all for Turkey’s own interests,” Austria’s chancellor Kurz has stated, demanding that “there must be an end to Turkey’s attempts to influence the people here in Austria and instrumentalising them for their conflicts.”
The largest party grouping in the European Parliament, the conservative EPP, has similarly run out of patience with Turkey, with its leader Manfred Weber, a member of the Bavarian CSU sister party to Merkel’s CDU, demanding a debate on Turkey and claiming that “Turkey is unilaterally escalating conflicts with Europe and the situation is getting worse. Turkish security forces attack the Greek border on a regular basis and the drilling attempts in the waters of Cyprus are intensifying continuously,” and insisting that “the EU cannot leave these aggressions unanswered”.
Yet the greatest stumbling block to concerted European action against Turkey will be Germany itself. To French and Greek dissatisfaction, the German security establishment consistently shies away from confronting Erdogan, with Germany raking in huge profits from arming Turkey with the high-tech weapons of war used against both European interests in the region and the borders of the EU itself.
Railing against the German defence industry’s lucrative deals with Turkey, Cyprus’ president Nicos Anastasiades demanded action from Merkel last week, asking “has Germany ever pondered on what it is breeding? Are the financial interests enough to justify disregarding consequences that may damage an important number of European countries?” But it is difficult to see Merkel’s Germany, perennially shrinking from confrontation, supporting the French initiative. With Turkey as with Russia, Germany’s high-minded rhetoric on European sovereignty will be undercut by Merkel’s desire to keep the lucrative deals rolling in.
Perhaps the most pressing opportunity for Europe to demonstrate its sovereignty comes from the unbalanced relationship with China. This was meant to be the agenda-setting year for this crucial issue, until Covid upturned the world order. Hopes that a China-EU trade deal would be finally signed this year, replacing the unbalanced economic relationship with a level playing field for European exporters, have been dashed by intransigent Chinese delaying tactics, with Beijing cancelling the September Leipzig summit until further notice.
Merkel’s long-standing illusions of “change through trade” have evaporated, replaced by a clearer understanding that the Middle Kingdom’s rebirth as a great power represents a systemic challenge to Europe’s sovereignty. Similarly, the risks of over-dependence on supply chains trailing back to China have been revealed by Covid, with “health sovereignty” emerging as a major priority for EU action.
By proceeding with Huawei’s central role in rolling out Germany’s 5G network against both American threats and the advice of the German security services, Merkel’s government displayed a startling naivety on China, only now being reassessed. Belatedly realising that the new Cold War playing out inside its citizens’ smartphones will challenge Europe far more than a contest for the distant islets of the South China Sea, the EU is placing new emphasis on cyber security, an area in which joint and concerted action will likely bear successful fruit.
On human rights, Germany’s equivocal stance, gently rebuking the awakening giant for its abuses while deepening Germany’s economic and strategic dependence on its systemic rival, is coming under greater domestic pressure. Merkel will be forced to defend her China policy before the Bundestag this autumn, with the increasingly important German Greens emerging as unexpected China hawks, lambasting Huawei as a “Trojan horse” for the Chinese Communist Party and pushing for sanctions against individuals linked to repression of the country’s Uighur minority.
Initially weak EU statements against China’s actions in Hong Kong are slowly evolving into more assertively condemnatory language, but Merkel herself remains committed to striking a note of caution, remarking blandly in a recent interview that “China has become a global player. That makes us partners in economic cooperation and combating climate change, but also competitors with very different political systems. Not to talk to each other would certainly be a bad idea.”
A hangover from a vanished age of multilateral cooperation through trade rather than multipolar competition through foreign policy, Merkel’s natural caution will likely dampen any meaningful action towards reshaping the EU into a major geopolitical player. In the dying days of her generation-long role as Europe’s most powerful politician, Merkel will likely leave dramatic action to her successor, whoever that will be, with the potential heirs to her throne already vying to establish themselves as serious strategic thinkers on the European plane. For the continental bloc to survive the coming era of great power competition, concerted action to reshape the union into a strategic actor will need to happen soon.
While Germany wishes to extend its holiday from history for as long as possible, Russia and Turkey are already spreading their beach towels across the Mediterranean’s most desirable real estate, and the romance with China is already turning sour. This may be the EU’s Hamilton moment, but with Germany at the reins, it is one without a Hamilton to rise to the occasion.
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